German intelligence warns Putin preparing Nato assault by end of decade
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Not surprised. The level of European alarm about the Russian threat being real has been greater than what could be sustained without there being secret direct evidence.
Here's hoping when he does that and immediately starts to lose, he doesn't decide to end the world.
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Trump might be an idiot, but he is not so much of an idiot to take on the entirety of Europe, who, likely when this happens will have new allies besides the US
There's a chance Trump's successor as fuhrer will be more directly militaristic, but only a chance. Most likely, Putin is still expecting Europe to fold and submit this time he escalates. Probably because he's misread the complacency of the West over the past two decades as a weakness of personality.
likely when this happens will have new allies besides the US
Who are you thinking of? Canada's a "shoe in" if you'll take us, of course, but anyone else?
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Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.
Putin has no other choice: the entire Russian economy is dependent on war and armaments and would collapse if peace were concluded. Putin could no longer control his country without an external enemy.
Hence his narrative of the "Nazis" who must be fought in Ukraine (and soon on other borders (see Suwalki Gap)). This narrative of the Nazis ties in with the russian history of the Great Patriotic War, and this resonates with the Russian population. Putin is building a sequel to WWII, with renewed external threats, and the people are receptive to that.
Therefore, Putin is not at all interested in a peace treaty. And the conflict with NATO countries has already begun: the severed power cables and data cables in the Baltic Sea and the attacks on our information systems should have been regarded as acts of war from their beginning. The threat is there NOW. And Europe and NATO must build up strength.
Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.
Barring help from the US, I would be shocked if they don't have hyperinflation within 15 months. Maybe they can keep going through that, or maybe not.
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There's a chance Trump's successor as fuhrer will be more directly militaristic, but only a chance. Most likely, Putin is still expecting Europe to fold and submit this time he escalates. Probably because he's misread the complacency of the West over the past two decades as a weakness of personality.
likely when this happens will have new allies besides the US
Who are you thinking of? Canada's a "shoe in" if you'll take us, of course, but anyone else?
Isn't Europes combined military budget halfway to the moon at this point? Last I heard 180 billion and climbing not including induvidual countries efforts.
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europe will not go to war over THAT.
Yep. Here's a fun possible timeline:
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US takes over greenland. Europe will cut off all ties to 'murika, and they'll be like "why would europe be so mean to us?!".
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Europe won't pivot too hard to China/India, but they'll become preferred trading-partners. EU will become the last bastion of actual Democracy.
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China will take that whole debacle as a green light to take Taiwan (and possibly re-taking manchuria, if not more of Russia).
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Russia will throw a hissyfit (threaten nukes, fail to deliver, and get fucked on the ground/air/sea) and the US will try to come to their aid under the guise of stopping the "yellow threat". But it'll fail cuz the US will devolve into a civil war.
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Russia will collapse and splinter, and the rest of the 21st century will be a mess off instability and the odd rogue van-borne nuke going off here and there, because mongol-brained swamp-troglodytes (muscovy) should never had nukes in the first place.
Doesn't this scenario essentially cut off the US from advanced chip manufacturing? The chips are made in taiwan and the machines for making the chips are made in europe.
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Isn't Europes combined military budget halfway to the moon at this point? Last I heard 180 billion and climbing not including induvidual countries efforts.
Yeah, even he has to know that if Europe does fight back (as you and me know it would) it will go poorly for him.
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Well sure, but it's a good start for a comparison. Best would be to add in the existing capability, the level of threat, size of the country, that sort of stuff.
It's just that even Germans have now realized that their chronic underspending has really hurt them and now to have any sort of respectable defence they'll need to spend more. A more moderate amount for a longer time would've been better but it is what it is.
their chronic underspending
If you haven't noticed yet germany already spend billions in war, they are one of the biggest spender in the world
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their chronic underspending
If you haven't noticed yet germany already spend billions in war, they are one of the biggest spender in the world
Do you know in what shape their military it is?
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Do you know in what shape their military it is?
With billions spend on it yearly sound like it's on pair with most countries around the world
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With billions spend on it yearly sound like it's on pair with most countries around the world
Unfortunately you're wrong about that.
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Not surprised. The level of European alarm about the Russian threat being real has been greater than what could be sustained without there being secret direct evidence.
Here's hoping when he does that and immediately starts to lose, he doesn't decide to end the world.
Based on intel from my MI buddies, most of Putin's nukes are probably nonfunctional. They tried to test one not long ago and it blew up, taking out the entire launch facility.
Russia's nukes are more or less a bluff.
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Based on intel from my MI buddies, most of Putin's nukes are probably nonfunctional. They tried to test one not long ago and it blew up, taking out the entire launch facility.
Russia's nukes are more or less a bluff.
They have >1000. They only need a 1% success rate.
Based on intel from my MI buddies
I really hope you're lying about that.
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They have >1000. They only need a 1% success rate.
Based on intel from my MI buddies
I really hope you're lying about that.
I was US Army Signal Corp about 20 years ago. We worked closely with MI, and those guys gave me the info.
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There's a chance Trump's successor as fuhrer will be more directly militaristic, but only a chance. Most likely, Putin is still expecting Europe to fold and submit this time he escalates. Probably because he's misread the complacency of the West over the past two decades as a weakness of personality.
likely when this happens will have new allies besides the US
Who are you thinking of? Canada's a "shoe in" if you'll take us, of course, but anyone else?
we may actually see a change in status-quo when it comes to china, it is also possible that europe starts warming up more to india, indonesia, brazil and other lesser powers are relations with the US deteriorates, these are the ones i would put my money on when it comes to new allies
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What does China stand to gain by attacking Russia?
rare earths in siberia etc
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I was US Army Signal Corp about 20 years ago. We worked closely with MI, and those guys gave me the info.
where are we? the war thunder forums?
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Based on intel from my MI buddies, most of Putin's nukes are probably nonfunctional. They tried to test one not long ago and it blew up, taking out the entire launch facility.
Russia's nukes are more or less a bluff.
But it only takes one to ruin a weekend.
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we may actually see a change in status-quo when it comes to china, it is also possible that europe starts warming up more to india, indonesia, brazil and other lesser powers are relations with the US deteriorates, these are the ones i would put my money on when it comes to new allies
Hmm. Would that be politically viable? If they're coming to your rescue militarily the relationship has to be deeper than just trade.
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They barely could handle a war with small Ukraine, a full scale war with NATO is a no-go; and I'm quite certain Putin won't live that long
Kremlin believed that Ukraine was a country that would fall to their knees, bend over and happily join them.
Now they are taking their time and bomb civilians to force them to do that.
They are taking their time. This is not an inability. This is deliberate breaking of Ukraine's back.
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Doesn't this scenario essentially cut off the US from advanced chip manufacturing? The chips are made in taiwan and the machines for making the chips are made in europe.
Maybe. There's no guarantee that every European nation would be on board with sanctioning the US in this scenario.
The Netherlands (where I believe they have the only manufacturing base of the machines that make advanced chips) might decide that it's not in their best interest to cut the US off.
Anyways I hope this Greenland shenanigans dies on the vine and my silly scenario never comes to pass.
