German intelligence warns Putin preparing Nato assault by end of decade
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What is the size of the army in men/woman for Russia? Given the last 3 years, their demographic should be impacted overall, isn’t it?
People who follow this subject have been talking about it as a crisis before the invasion even began. Now it's being described as "demographic collapse". They have remarkably low birth rates, an ageing population, xenophobia issues, and few friendly nations from which to borrow workers. I saw one headline that they've begun trying to bribe young ladies to have children. I believe I've seen Putin on record saying he sees demographics as one of his biggest issues, but his policies belie a more cynical stance. It is likely that Russia will continue to decline throughout the century, and in geopolitical terms they are positioned to eventually become a client state of some sort, likelier than not beholden to China.
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If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone's suddenly saying "we have to go to war over THAT?" and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that's your cue that phase 1 is complete.
I really hope our politicians are not THAT dumb..... Hope is what we have
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https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/europa-krieg-szenarien-bnd-bundeswehr-li.3227229
translation
Germany's supreme soldier is convinced that Russia is preparing for a great war. Even after a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, Germany has no time “to take a deep breath”, says the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Carsten Breuer. Russia continues to upgrade and has doubled the number of soldiers compared to pre-war times. The Russian military structure is clearly against the West. Therefore, an end to the war on Ukraine will not lead to “we have peace again on the European continent,” he said in the talk show “Maischberger” recently.
This coincides with the assessment of Jörg Schmitt, the deputy head of the investigative department of the Süddeutsche Zeitung. Together with colleagues from WDR and NDR, he was able to evaluate the situation analyses of the BND and the Bundeswehr. By the end of the decade, Russia could create the conditions for a large-scale conventional war against NATO, regardless of the war in Ukraine.
According to these sources, Moscow could try to test the Nato with various scenarios, says Schmitt. For example, by provocations in the Baltic region or in the Arctic. Vladimir Putin is concerned with exploring the US's responsiveness and assistanceUSA.
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I really hope our politicians are not THAT dumb..... Hope is what we have
Stupid or not, that's the playbook to watch for. Don't give Russia an inch on article 5, or they'll use it to undermine the whole alliance.
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Russia can't even take over Ukraine and they'll take on entire NATO? Even if we exclude USA from it there is just no chance. Only if dumbass Trump collaborates with Russia to attack NATO together. That would be WW3 then...
Russia has the same problem as the same problem has the US, but supercharged it. They made the military the backbone of the economy and main social safety net, so they need to be in a permanent state of conflict to justify it.
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What is the size of the army in men/woman for Russia? Given the last 3 years, their demographic should be impacted overall, isn’t it?
It is definitely impacted but you also need to consider how indoctrinated and thoroughly militarized the younger generations are at this point. Russia might not have good birth rates, but their children are forced to learn marching in formation early on (I think it was at kindergarten level) and practice with wooden rifle mockups.
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Russia can't even take over Ukraine and they'll take on entire NATO? Even if we exclude USA from it there is just no chance. Only if dumbass Trump collaborates with Russia to attack NATO together. That would be WW3 then...
There’s this old saying that goes something like: "The European Airforce could beat Russia any day of the week - as long as they don’t have to do it the next week as well."
Meaning, the most pressing problem are our ammunition stockpiles. If you research that you’ll quickly see how bad the situation is in the EU currently. The Bundeswehr could, according to top generals, not stay in a fight for more than one or two weeks before running out of artillery shells, missiles and bombs.
Then there’s also the issue of lacking infrastructure, the absence of a unified command structure in Europe and with the withdrawal of the US, also a lack of strategic capabilities (awacs, satellite data, military intelligence, air tankers, heavy lift helicopters, …).
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Russia has the same problem as the same problem has the US, but supercharged it. They made the military the backbone of the economy and main social safety net, so they need to be in a permanent state of conflict to justify it.
That’s not at all comparable to the American economy, wtf dude.
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If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone's suddenly saying "we have to go to war over THAT?" and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that's your cue that phase 1 is complete.
America is already out of the question and I think most politicians in Europe are finally seeing that. But the problem runs much deeper still. With the US out of the picture, will Madrid declare war on Russia if they send little green men to a border village in Latvia?
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If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone's suddenly saying "we have to go to war over THAT?" and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that's your cue that phase 1 is complete.
I like how you think.
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I like how you think.
I don't particularly
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America is already out of the question and I think most politicians in Europe are finally seeing that. But the problem runs much deeper still. With the US out of the picture, will Madrid declare war on Russia if they send little green men to a border village in Latvia?
America is doing just fine, it's just the USA portion of it that is troubled
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If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone's suddenly saying "we have to go to war over THAT?" and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that's your cue that phase 1 is complete.
Yeah, imagine invoking article 5 just over a handful of buildings....
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Checks out. Got to capitalise on having his asset installed in the highest office of the US before things risk stabilising.
i mean, don't we all just assume this now?
i don't mean to make light of the news, but it's clear as day: america isn't america any more.
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That’s not at all comparable to the American economy, wtf dude.
To different scales it is. The US has been using the armed forces an employer of last resort, and defense factories are the only thing keeping some regions afloat. Of course the US economy is significantly more developed outside of the military, but if the US were to scale back its military there would transversal cracks all over the economy and society.
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America is doing just fine, it's just the USA portion of it that is troubled
I m delighted by your comment.
But also, isn't the USA portion one of the only two countries over there that are (currently) a member of NATO?
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Yeah, imagine invoking article 5 just over a handful of buildings....
Aaahaha heh hmm ahem err yes
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If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone's suddenly saying "we have to go to war over THAT?" and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that's your cue that phase 1 is complete.
This is specifically why France developed their nuclear arsenal under De Gaulle.
De Gaulle believed that the Americans could not be trusted to defend Europe, he was afraid that if the Russians would attack Europe with nuclear weapons the US would not defend us.
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If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone's suddenly saying "we have to go to war over THAT?" and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that's your cue that phase 1 is complete.
America is going to be balls deep in greenland and europe will not go to war over THAT.
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Russia can't even take over Ukraine and they'll take on entire NATO? Even if we exclude USA from it there is just no chance. Only if dumbass Trump collaborates with Russia to attack NATO together. That would be WW3 then...
They're already quite successful in hybrid warfare against NATO and EU.
Probing NATO's security guarantees doesn't mean taking it on fully. It means testing out how far you can go without them fully committing with military.
