German intelligence warns Putin preparing Nato assault by end of decade
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Based on intel from my MI buddies, most of Putin's nukes are probably nonfunctional. They tried to test one not long ago and it blew up, taking out the entire launch facility.
Russia's nukes are more or less a bluff.
But it only takes one to ruin a weekend.
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we may actually see a change in status-quo when it comes to china, it is also possible that europe starts warming up more to india, indonesia, brazil and other lesser powers are relations with the US deteriorates, these are the ones i would put my money on when it comes to new allies
Hmm. Would that be politically viable? If they're coming to your rescue militarily the relationship has to be deeper than just trade.
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They barely could handle a war with small Ukraine, a full scale war with NATO is a no-go; and I'm quite certain Putin won't live that long
Kremlin believed that Ukraine was a country that would fall to their knees, bend over and happily join them.
Now they are taking their time and bomb civilians to force them to do that.
They are taking their time. This is not an inability. This is deliberate breaking of Ukraine's back.
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Doesn't this scenario essentially cut off the US from advanced chip manufacturing? The chips are made in taiwan and the machines for making the chips are made in europe.
Maybe. There's no guarantee that every European nation would be on board with sanctioning the US in this scenario.
The Netherlands (where I believe they have the only manufacturing base of the machines that make advanced chips) might decide that it's not in their best interest to cut the US off.
Anyways I hope this Greenland shenanigans dies on the vine and my silly scenario never comes to pass.
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What does China stand to gain by attacking Russia?
What does China stand to gain by attacking Russia?
The other guy mentioned rare-earth's, but Siberia is also extremely rich in non-rare minerals and metals. China would also stand to gain oil, gas, and coal deposits. However one probably overlooked resource is fresh water.
Water is already a massive issue in the northern half of China (not just the arid west, but even around Beijing). Eastern Russia has a lot of fresh water, like for instance Lake Baikal, which contains 20% of the planet's unfrozen freshwater. I saw some talk (5+ years ago) about China wanting to buy water-rights to this lake and pipeline it through Mongolia, but I've not heard of there being any concrete plans in the works yet.
Another possible gain would be access to the pacific and the arctic. In the extreme scenario where Russian Federation splinters, and the eastern states of that federation find themselves without a way to make ends meet, China might make some very favorable deals in the region. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if they'd federalize under China. And with global warming comes two huge boons:
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Siberia's tundras thawing, making it easier to access untapped resources.
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North pole remains largely ice-free for at least parts of the year, making shipping between eastern Asia and Europe cheaper and faster.
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I don't know... These last few years have led me to never underestimate stupidity. Not that I think this would happen, because I don't think Americans would allow that.
I don’t think Americans would allow that.
What would they do to stop it?
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Based on intel from my MI buddies, most of Putin's nukes are probably nonfunctional. They tried to test one not long ago and it blew up, taking out the entire launch facility.
Russia's nukes are more or less a bluff.
This is an incredibly dangerous assumption. According to the Federation of American Scientists Russia has a stockpile of 4489 warheads of which some 1674 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles.[1]
A large part of these warheads might be defective but realistically you only need a handful of working ones.
Russia also has the necessary material and infrastructure to keep their warheads in working order.[2]
So while their capabilities compared to the USSR are greatly diminished there is no reason to assume that Russias nukes are all broken.[1] https://fas.org/publication/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023/
[2] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002-10/features/breakdown-breakout-us-and-russian-warhead-production-capabilities -
America has always been an aggressive state - the only thing that has changed are the targets. But this is perfectly „American”.
you're right, and phrases like "america isn't america any more" probably aren't really constructive, now that i stop to think about what i wrote. it actually plays to the kind of shit they're trying to do right now with the smithsonian. so i regret writing that. thanks for pointing it out.
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you're right, and phrases like "america isn't america any more" probably aren't really constructive, now that i stop to think about what i wrote. it actually plays to the kind of shit they're trying to do right now with the smithsonian. so i regret writing that. thanks for pointing it out.
Eh, no worries.
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This is an incredibly dangerous assumption. According to the Federation of American Scientists Russia has a stockpile of 4489 warheads of which some 1674 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles.[1]
A large part of these warheads might be defective but realistically you only need a handful of working ones.
Russia also has the necessary material and infrastructure to keep their warheads in working order.[2]
So while their capabilities compared to the USSR are greatly diminished there is no reason to assume that Russias nukes are all broken.[1] https://fas.org/publication/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023/
[2] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002-10/features/breakdown-breakout-us-and-russian-warhead-production-capabilitiesI'm not saying to assume they don't all work. I'm saying to diaregard their threats of using thembecause they likely won't.
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If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone's suddenly saying "we have to go to war over THAT?" and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that's your cue that phase 1 is complete.
Danzig or war situation.
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I hope Putin dies before that. And in such a personal regime his dead and the consequent fight for power could lead to big changes in Russia.
So let's hope Zelensky was right, and it's sooner than later.
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Wouldn’t Russia have to suddenly produce a lot more young men who are still alive to invade any more countries?
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Trump might be an idiot, but he is not so much of an idiot to take on the entirety of Europe, who, likely when this happens will have new allies besides the US
Trump might be an idiot, but he is not so much of an idiot
I'm gonna stop you right there. Every time we underestimate Trump he shows there is no low and/or stupidity he won't sink to. He's credibly accused of being a Russian asset and has done everything Putin could have possibly wanted in terms of weakening western power and alliances. In like3 months. Do I think he'll attack the UK or something? No. But he may very well do everything possible to help Russia, including giving them weapons and hurting their enemies...
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I hope Putin dies before that. And in such a personal regime his dead and the consequent fight for power could lead to big changes in Russia.
So let's hope Zelensky was right, and it's sooner than later.
His replacement is going to have to do something big to legitimize their rule
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where are we? the war thunder forums?
Nothing spills military secrets like having to be right on the internet!
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Wouldn’t Russia have to suddenly produce a lot more young men who are still alive to invade any more countries?
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Kremlin believed that Ukraine was a country that would fall to their knees, bend over and happily join them.
Now they are taking their time and bomb civilians to force them to do that.
They are taking their time. This is not an inability. This is deliberate breaking of Ukraine's back.
Thank you for reminding me to block lemm.ee with your sad propaganda
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America is going to be balls deep in greenland and europe will not go to war over THAT.
If the EU won't consider themselves to be at war when the part of the EU defensive pact zone that is called Greenland is invaded, they're losing all credibility both internally and externally. Why would the EU defend Finland or the Baltics or Cyprus? Why would the EU organize against foreign powers funding violent rebellions inside EU territory (similar to how Russia funded Transnistria or the US funded the contras in Nicaragua)?
There is no better red line for France to launch their nukes than the invasion of Greenland. As seen with Russia, any grace given to cult of personality dictators only emboldens them and their worshipers. The only fair response to madman theory is to call the 'insane' administration's bluff and let the people who don't want them and their families to become radioactive piles of ash take the responsibility of defying insane orders.
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Wouldn’t Russia have to suddenly produce a lot more young men who are still alive to invade any more countries?
Men who are still alive
Oh no... Putin found Dunharrow. Being alive isn't needed.
