AfD is the most popular party in Germany for the first time, with a record 26%
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Can someone explain how powerful a party can be in Germany with a plurality but without a majority?
Short version is they cannot govern without a coalition partner, but they gain other rights in the parliament, such as filling important positions in the administration. When they reach 1/3 of the votes, so 33% they have a Sperrminorität, which means they can't prevent changes in the constitution and also hinder new judges in the constitutional court.
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David Kriesel is amazing! Didn't know about this. Very useful.
Yes, he's great data scientist. He has more stuff on his webpage, e.g. bias analysis of the different polling institutes, be sure to check it out if you like!
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To the surprise of absolutely nobody
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Should the left not be worried?
Where did I say that? How the fuck do you come up with that being the conclusion of my comment?
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We are fucked
We are not. It's just a survey and not a vote result.
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Where did I say that? How the fuck do you come up with that being the conclusion of my comment?
I really start to hate these reports. Weekly updates on the Sonntagsfrage are utterly lacking substance, fearmongering (to left leaning people) and reassurance (to AfD voters). Everything we do not need.
There?
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I really start to hate these reports. Weekly updates on the Sonntagsfrage are utterly lacking substance, fearmongering (to left leaning people) and reassurance (to AfD voters). Everything we do not need.
There?
So in your stupid brain "Not A" is automatically and without any alternatives to equivocate with "the utterly illogical opposite to A"?
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We are not. It's just a survey and not a vote result.
One predicates the other, though.
Clearly Germany is not doing enough to put a stop to the rising conservatism movement, and the next election might not end as favorably as a result.
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Is the proper response: Well shit.
Did you not realize that they performed incredibly well in the elections? Social media is how they will overthrow the last remaining democracies. France, UK and Canada are next. All the young folks are increasingly more conservative and within 2-6 years, it's going to be game over.
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So in your stupid brain "Not A" is automatically and without any alternatives to equivocate with "the utterly illogical opposite to A"?
- Fear mongering is making people worried.
- You are against this report for doing this to leftists, hence you are against making leftist people worried.
?
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One predicates the other, though.
Clearly Germany is not doing enough to put a stop to the rising conservatism movement, and the next election might not end as favorably as a result.
The last election was so recent, the new government hasn't even started working yet.
This poll is utterly useless, cause the next election it asks about will be in 4 years. -
We are not. It's just a survey and not a vote result.
My guy. You are not seeing the bigger picture.
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- Fear mongering is making people worried.
- You are against this report for doing this to leftists, hence you are against making leftist people worried.
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No for fucks sake. Fearmongering is the irrational exaggeration of a worrisome situation to a degree that incites fear (hence the term fearmongering) and panic.
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Where did I say that? How the fuck do you come up with that being the conclusion of my comment?
Calm down you could have just said “yes the left should be worried but no need to panic” and all would be well.
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Take care of the nazi problem before they take care of you. You already know how that works. Stop allowing them to broadcast nazi propaganda as if it was news.
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Did you not realize that they performed incredibly well in the elections? Social media is how they will overthrow the last remaining democracies. France, UK and Canada are next. All the young folks are increasingly more conservative and within 2-6 years, it's going to be game over.
We really should stop using the term "conservative" for what the self proclaimed "conservative" parties are doing. Because they don't conserve anything. They do the exact opposite. They exploit and destroy.
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I did Nazi that coming.
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Can someone explain how powerful a party can be in Germany with a plurality but without a majority?
That entirely depends on the other parties.
As long as they have less than 50% the other parties could (in theory) band together against them and create a coalition government.
The problem arises when that coalition has to become more diverse. As you can imagine the populist right would rather work together with the far right than with the populist left, so the coalition becomes shaky, paralyzed because they cannot come to agreements. The common denominator will be so small that basically nothing gets done, and the oppositional party will profit from that.
Shaky coalition governments can lead to government breakups and snap elections which in combination with the resulting loss of trust and inability to do anything of the government will likely lead to an even stronger opposition and even more shaky governments or right out majority for the plurality party.
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In phone polls, not an election...
