U.S. Has Attacked Iran's Nuclear Facilities
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You're reading the play like Russia wants an ally.
What they want is a dependent.
Russia is a real country run by actual human beings. They're not Mordor with a dark lord commanding an army of orcs. And Russia wants allies. They're up against a vast global US-lead alliance system. Of course they want allies.
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Well. China will invade Taiwan, pearl harbouring us bases in Japan before hand.
Bada Bing. Bada boom. Shooting war starts
When China invades Taiwan, that itself has a lot of potential for escalation. Bada Bing. Bada boom. Iran might be completely irrelevant in such a war.
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Look at that, it’s working.
What's working? Iran isn't any more dependent on Russia than it was before the strikes.
I think you should look at a map sometime. Unless you are taking about Russia-China relations, but that doesn’t seem to be the context here.
There are just as many countries between Iran and Russia as there are between Iran and China, I don't see why Iran would have to allow itself to be dependent on Russia when China is just as close. Granted, Russia and Iran border the Caspian Sea so they can access each others' ports, but Iran also has ocean coast so it can access Chinese ports as well. In terms of raw numbers, Iran's exports to China value $4.59B and imports value $10B. Trade with Russia, by comparison, is $1.9B. Total.
China is actually a closer economic partner with Iran than Russia is, so why wouldn't Iran be able to turn to China?
Also, Iran is a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Also also, Iran is an observer member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and looks to be in the process to become a full member eventually.
Also also also, Taiwan condemned Iran's strikes against Israel, so you know they're tight with China lol
wrote on last edited by [email protected]There are just as many countries between Iran and Russia as there are between Iran and China...
Then why would you say China is "right there" as an argument.
Also, the premise is not that Iran is a puppet state of Russia, but that they are dependent on Russia for security from other nuclear-armed countries. Russia doesn't want Iran to get nukes because they lose that valuable bargaining chip.
Let's sum up your arguments so far.
You think that Russia can't maintain control over other nations, and I provided a direct refutation of that.
You think that China was geographically closer to Iran than Russia was, and that is refuted with Google maps.
You need to take a look at the players, their motivations and the "board" and then come back with an actual assessment instead of plainly incorrect and unfounded opinions
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Netanyahu?
Although it's not like Trump is some puppet on a string. The whole US government wants war with Iran and it has for my entire life. There doesn't need to be some secret master behind this (Israel, Russia, whatever)
Yup. When have established powers ever liked a revolutionary government? We don't have to like the type of revolution Iran underwent to acknowledge that it was a radical revolutionary government in the literal sense of the term. No country on Earth has a form of government like Iran's. It's pretty unique. Any time a decent sized country tries is taken over by revolutionaries who attempt a radically new form of government, they receive immense opposition from the old powers. All of Europe declared war on France for chopping the head off their king. Every western government embargoed the people Haiti for daring to violently overthrow their slavers. An expeditionary army of numerous capitalist powers invaded the nascent Soviet Union to try and shut it down. And Iran has been under massive sanctions since they dared to throw their western-backed dictator out by force.
Established powers always try to clamp down on any kind of revolutionary government. It's not that they fear the government itself; they fear the ideas that government represents. Iran needed to be punished. It needed to be embargoed into poverty. They couldn't just let Iran try out its new form of government and let them sort themselves out. Because if Iran can overthrow a western-backed puppet and seize control over their own natural resources? Well that's an idea that could spread far and wide.
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Russia is a real country run by actual human beings. They're not Mordor with a dark lord commanding an army of orcs. And Russia wants allies. They're up against a vast global US-lead alliance system. Of course they want allies.
Would have been easy enough for them to be allies with Ukraine, but they didn't do that, did they?
No, they want dependents. Allies have a choice. Dependents have an illusion of choice.
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This could very easily spiral into a full-on WW3 scenario. Note, WW3 may not look like what you expect it to look like. We've been culturally conditioned to think WW3 will look like thousands of mushroom clouds over major cities, but that need not be the case. WW3 could be a large conventional war just like the previous world wars.
Russia is already bogged down in Ukraine, and the US and NATO are supplying them. Israel is at war with a half a dozen countries, and the US is supporting them, including directly entering the war on Iran. The danger of WW3 lies is revealed when you ask, why did Israel choose this time to attack Iran? They chose to because now was simply the perfect opportunity. With Iran's proxy fighters around Israel devastated, with the Gaza a smoking ruin, Iranian power is lower than it has been in years. That's why they decided to do this now - kick them while they're down.
Us getting bogged down in Iran, however, presents other countries with their own windows of opportunity. And the biggest one is China invading Taiwan. China has been saber-rattling and openly planning an invasion of Taiwan, to be done at some point in the next few years. What better time to launch it than when the US has already been depleting their limited weapon stocks in Ukraine, and just got bogged down in Iran?
China is already involved in the Ukraine conflict; they're one of Russia's biggest suppliers. Iran also is a Russian ally, providing them thousands of drones. The alliance system of a potential world war is already laid out. It would be Russia/Iran/China vs the US, NATO, and assorted allies.
This would be unlikely to end up in a full nuclear exchange. Direct invasion of the homelands of Russia, China, or the US are not going to happen. But we could see multiple large conventional armed conflicts breaking out in multiple theaters, a conflict between two vast alliance systems that between them encompass most of the world's population.
If that isn't a world war, I don't know what is. Nukes don't need to fly to have a conflict that leaves millions dead.
Us getting bogged down in Iran, however, presents other countries with their own windows of opportunity. And the biggest one is China invading Taiwan. China has been saber-rattling and openly planning an invasion of Taiwan, to be done at some point in the next few years. What better time to launch it than when the US has already been depleting their limited weapon stocks in Ukraine, and just got bogged down in Iran?
IMO, there is a lot of conjuntive in it.
For now, there were only bombs on nuclear facilities from the US side... No foot troops getting bogged down. Nothing getting bogged down for now...
You can always imagine how something could link to a word war. That would have already worked for Ukraine. That would have worked with Afghanistan as well.
The question is how realistic it is. I'm not a fan of painting the devil on the wall by declaring WW3 myself on Lemmy and saying goodbye to others....
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This could very easily spiral into a full-on WW3 scenario. Note, WW3 may not look like what you expect it to look like. We've been culturally conditioned to think WW3 will look like thousands of mushroom clouds over major cities, but that need not be the case. WW3 could be a large conventional war just like the previous world wars.
Russia is already bogged down in Ukraine, and the US and NATO are supplying them. Israel is at war with a half a dozen countries, and the US is supporting them, including directly entering the war on Iran. The danger of WW3 lies is revealed when you ask, why did Israel choose this time to attack Iran? They chose to because now was simply the perfect opportunity. With Iran's proxy fighters around Israel devastated, with the Gaza a smoking ruin, Iranian power is lower than it has been in years. That's why they decided to do this now - kick them while they're down.
Us getting bogged down in Iran, however, presents other countries with their own windows of opportunity. And the biggest one is China invading Taiwan. China has been saber-rattling and openly planning an invasion of Taiwan, to be done at some point in the next few years. What better time to launch it than when the US has already been depleting their limited weapon stocks in Ukraine, and just got bogged down in Iran?
China is already involved in the Ukraine conflict; they're one of Russia's biggest suppliers. Iran also is a Russian ally, providing them thousands of drones. The alliance system of a potential world war is already laid out. It would be Russia/Iran/China vs the US, NATO, and assorted allies.
This would be unlikely to end up in a full nuclear exchange. Direct invasion of the homelands of Russia, China, or the US are not going to happen. But we could see multiple large conventional armed conflicts breaking out in multiple theaters, a conflict between two vast alliance systems that between them encompass most of the world's population.
If that isn't a world war, I don't know what is. Nukes don't need to fly to have a conflict that leaves millions dead.
US weapons stockpiles aren’t depleted in the slightest. You guys sent your old stuff to Ukraine and not much more, and you haven’t sent anything substantial in over a year.
Iran will, most likely, not involve more than an air campaign and the US can do that with a bomber wing and a carrier strike group. I can’t imagine a case where this evolves into a full invasion (but of course with trump you can never be sure).
If anything, seeing Iran getting dominated by Israel and the US would probably give China some doubts about a possible operation against Taiwan.
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Well. China will invade Taiwan, pearl harbouring us bases in Japan before hand.
Bada Bing. Bada boom. Shooting war starts
How is Iran even a factor in that case then?
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Strangely yes. This jacks up the price of oil in a way that doesn't dirty Putin's hands. It's a bit of a weird play but makes some sense.
wrote on last edited by [email protected]This is some of the most geopolitically misinformed shit I’ve read in a while, congratulations.
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Belarus has basically been driven out of the European economy, but that's hardly something Russia did. If Russia has become an empire and Belarus has lost its sovereignty it's because Europe decided to force the issue. Bad move, I guess?
Or maybe Belarus and Russia are just allies and they're working together like normal allies do.
Either way, comparing this to Iran is absurd! Iran has ten times the population. Plus, China is right there. It wouldn't work.
I agree with most of the points you’re raising in this thread but Belarus is definitely a Russian puppet state more so than a conventional ally.
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Do you think Biden wouldn't have done the exact same thing to "defend" Israel?
This is clearly about Israel and the long-time desire for war with Iran in the US government. Blaming Russia is, frankly, absurd.
Trump certainly would like to have Putin as a business buddy, he's an 80's deals guy after all, but there's no business here that benefits Russia so that's also absurd. Russia does not benefit from Iran's collapse. This is very bad for Russia.
Biden wouldn’t have voided and left the Iran nuclear agreement (that he himself helped to negotiate and put in place) though, which was the stone that got all of this rolling in the first place.
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Iran and its allies and proxies have to retaliate against US positions in the region. If Iran doesnt respond, they will be considered fair game for bombing whenever the US and Israel are bored. Both US and Israel just proved that diplomacy is off the table with them. Neither country speaks any language but violence.
I don’t know if they can, honestly. Iran has lost air superiority in their own skies as well as, reportedly, a majority of their long range missile launch sites. US bases in the near gulf states might be in range of Irans short range arsenal, but do they really want a strike into their neighbors territory? We’ll see.
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Only empires can have dependency, Russia isn't nearly that strong. Russia needs allies or it will be overwhelmed.
I don't agree with the guy, but Russia has dependencies both in central Asia and in Europe. Without Russia's support, the current regimes in Turkmenistan, Belarus and Transnistria would not survive.
Iran, however, isn't one, as you said.
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I was kinda hoping the US would collapse into civil war before they helped start WW3.
Bugger.
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This is some of the most geopolitically misinformed shit I’ve read in a while, congratulations.
Great rebuttle. Really drove home your point with facts and evidence. Oh no sorry, didn't get bogged down with those... Or post any, or even a differing opinion. Just the snide of.. Did you by chance drop out of school?
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So usa dropping another 1 trillion and 20 years for nothing?
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Jesus do you want me to write you an essay?
I will say they just entered a new 20-year bilateral trade and military cooperation treaty on Jan 17th of this year, which is hardly something Russia would do if they were willing to just destroy Iran in a few months. They did this because trade between the countries has risen sharply due to the sanctions against Russia, and that's not going away any time soon so it would be foolish to sacrifice them at this stage. Then there's the suspected missiles and drones that Iran has been (possibly) supplying Russia for its war with Ukraine, and blowing them up would disrupt that supply line.
But if you're determined to believe Russia wants Iran to be bombed, I won't be able to stop you.
wrote on last edited by [email protected]You wanna go look at those numbers or you gonna keep bullshitting based on articles you skimmed? Like I'm aware of the trade and the drones. I'm also aware of Russia's oil exports and their ghost fleet selling to India and others.
Here's a list of Russia's trading partners with numbers. Notice how Iran isn't even top 10? Do I need to break down what they're exporting to Germany or do you get it now? And this ignores India BTW.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Russia
Strait of Hormuz shuts and that's gravy for Russian, especially with the Artic ocean melting. Congrads though, now I think you're a drop out.
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The US empire is a cancer on humanity
Hey dude, we didn't all vote for him
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Sure glad we dodged that Harris bullet though, right guys! I super wish I hadn’t voted like all the other cool kids though.
I have to say, the one good part of Trump in office is at least you lot aren't lecturing people on why invading Iran is good, actually!
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Hey dude, we didn't all vote for him
I said empire, not president. Dems aren't opposing the war.
