What would be the political effect of St Petersburg declaring independence from Russia?
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I'll admit that I am not super into internal Russian politics, but is there a reason for these areas to want to leave Russia?
There's certainly parts of Russia that have separatist sentiments. Can't say I'm aware of any overwhelming separatist sentiment in that region though.
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Assume these joined St. Petersburg:
Murmansk Oblast
Republic of Karelia
Leningrad Oblast
Pskov Oblast
Novgorod Oblastwrote on last edited by [email protected]Region Population Murmansk Oblast 667,744 Republic of Karelia 533,121 Leningrad Oblast 2,000,997 Pskov Oblast 599,084 Novgorod Oblast 583,387 Saint Petersburg 5,601,911 Total 9,986,244 Russia has a population of 146,028,325, of which this would be 6.8%. These are tremendously-disproportionate numbers; the 10 million here would be about a quarter Ukraine's prewar population. My expectation---without trying to do a deeper analysis looking at what military hardware might wind up in the hands of the seceding oblasts---is that absent other changes in Russia, or political unwillingness to fight against seceding oblasts, or outside direct involvement, there would be a civil war and the resources of the other 93% would most-likely defeat them and re-extend control over them.
That might have a risk of nuclear civil war, depending upon how the military acts and what control of the arsenal looks like. The prospect of nuclear war amongst ex-member states of the Soviet Union was a principal concern of the US about the time that the Soviet Union broke up.
EDIT: Updated numbers to reflect the fact that Saint Petersburg isn't part of Leningrad Oblast.
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Assume these joined St. Petersburg:
Murmansk Oblast
Republic of Karelia
Leningrad Oblast
Pskov Oblast
Novgorod Oblastwrote on last edited by [email protected]I am from SPb, ant it would be cool.
- North-west is a self-sustained region: machinery, ageiculture, large port, a 5-mil city you name it. We could live separately and be fine
- Russia is called a federation, but in the reality, power of regions were largely taking away. So it is about sending taxes to Moscow and getting shit in return.
- People are more "European", before war a large part of more active/younger people were shopping/taking vacations in Finland, going to Estonia, or travel further through those countries. Same with Finns buying stuff in Russia or partying in SPb.
With all the general closeness, I absolutely can see Saint-Petersburg and the region being a separate country with close ties (no-visa, EU member?) with Nordic and Baltic countries.
But I guess it's not happening, and by writing the things above I became a terrorist, "promoting rebellion and dissolution of the Russian state"
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Being a part of Russia should be reason enough /s
Memes aside, I would be more interested in the potential of central and eastern regions leaving Russia - the parts that were historically populated by various indigenous peoples before being forcibly included into the Russian empire.
Siberia - easily. "the guys over the mountains" coule live by themselves and get more use of their asian ties, in contrary to working for Moscow.
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There's certainly parts of Russia that have separatist sentiments. Can't say I'm aware of any overwhelming separatist sentiment in that region though.
Right after the "Crimea referendum", some guys in Saint-Petersburg tried to start a referendum for the independence of the North-West, and got majorly fucked for treason. Guess the "democracy" wasn't a democracy enough
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I'll admit that I am not super into internal Russian politics, but is there a reason for these areas to want to leave Russia?
Not a single one.
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Assume these joined St. Petersburg:
Murmansk Oblast
Republic of Karelia
Leningrad Oblast
Pskov Oblast
Novgorod OblastIt would likely be the end of Russia as a country.
The conquering of St. Petersburg was central to the modern formation of the Russian identity. After that, the lands were made integral to Russia. A post-Soviet Russia would never allow such a key part of the country to break away.
A post-Russian Eurasia would likely see at least four independent countries; potentially more. The eastern part of Russia would likely fall into China's sphere of influence immediately without much resistance from the rest of the world.
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Siberia - easily. "the guys over the mountains" coule live by themselves and get more use of their asian ties, in contrary to working for Moscow.
In reality though, they'd be run over immediately by China which I'm sure isn't going to be in their best interest
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I'll admit that I am not super into internal Russian politics, but is there a reason for these areas to want to leave Russia?
I don't know of a political movement yet, but I would guess the following:
- Without Russia, the new St. Petersburg country could engage with more trade with the EU instead. The region is one of the more advanced parts of Russia, so they may figure that they could do better trading within the EU customs union than being frozen out.
- While a lot of resource wealth goes into Moscow and St. Petersburg from some parts of Russia, there are a lot of other areas that rely on massive Russian subsidies to maintain their standards of living. If resource wealth gets cut off, St. Petersburg may not want to subsidize these backwater areas.
- The Wagner Group is located in St. Petersburg. It is possible that a future civil war between the Wagner Group and the Russian government may lead to the Wagner Group wanting independence from Russia to keep its pseudo colonial riches.
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In reality though, they'd be run over immediately by China which I'm sure isn't going to be in their best interest
Yes, that's a risk, I'm just saying the eastern part of Russia is not exactly winning by being under Moscow. They have a major part of Russian's heavy industry, oil, ores, lumber, and several million cities packed with universities, so they have an initial set of everything to "live independently". But whoever is nearby will always look at those resources - material or human.
