The Breaking Point: Assessing the Worsening Russian Economy in July 2025 and the Costs of War
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One loves to hear it.
I wonder if, when faced with total collapse, Putin will Ozymandias Russia for his own hubris. Will he fall from a window before then? -
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Structural Disintegration (12–24 months): Key sectors—particularly energy, defence manufacturing, and logistics—face system-wide failures due to technological decay and manpower depletion. Inflation surges, and real incomes plummet.
Political-Economic Crisis (2+ years): Economic conditions begin to catalyse political instability, regional disobedience and elite fragmentation. Capital flight accelerates. The system becomes ungovernable except through martial rule and widespread purges.
I take this as Vlad can hold on at most 3 more years.
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Structural Disintegration (12–24 months): Key sectors—particularly energy, defence manufacturing, and logistics—face system-wide failures due to technological decay and manpower depletion. Inflation surges, and real incomes plummet.
Political-Economic Crisis (2+ years): Economic conditions begin to catalyse political instability, regional disobedience and elite fragmentation. Capital flight accelerates. The system becomes ungovernable except through martial rule and widespread purges.
I take this as Vlad can hold on at most 3 more years.
There are so many countries even further down this path of collapse whose leaders hold on for long long periods. I mean if Russia follows the Syria recipe, then Putin’s children will rule for decades after he dies.