I really hope this is the beginning of massive correction on AI hype.
-
I really hope this is the beginning of massive correction on AI hype.
-
T [email protected] shared this topic
-
It's coming, Pelosi sold her shares like a month ago.
It's going to crash, if not for the reasons she sold for, as more and more people hear she sold, they're going to sell because they'll assume she has insider knowledge due to her office.
Which is why politicians (and spouses) shouldn't be able to directly invest into individual companies.
Even if they aren't doing anything wrong, people will follow them and do what they do. Only a truly ignorant person would believe it doesn't have an effect on other people.
-
I just hope it means I can get a high end GPU for less than a grand one day.
-
It’s a reaction to thinking China has better AI, not thinking AI has less value.
-
If anything, this will accelerate the AI hype, as big leaps forward have been made without increased resource usage.
-
It's coming, Pelosi sold her shares like a month ago.
Yeah but she was only really disappointed with the 5000 series lineup
-
Exactly. Galaxy brains on Wall Street realizing that nvidia's monopoly pricing power is coming to an end. This was inevitable - China has 4x as many workers as the US, trained in the best labs and best universities in the world, interns at the best companies, then, because of racism, sent back to China. Blocking sales of nvidia chips to China drives them to develop their own hardware, rather than getting them hooked on Western hardware. China's AI may not be as efficient or as good as the West right now, but it will be cheaper, and it will get better.
-
Something is got to give. You can't spend several $200 billion annually on capex and get a mere $2-3 billion return on this investment.
I understand that they are searching for a radical breakthrough "that will change everything", but there is also reasons to be sceptical about this (e.g. documents revealing that Microsoft and OpenAI defined AGI as something that can get them $100 billion in annual revenue as opposed to some specific capabilities).
-
Everyone's disappointed with the 5000 series...
They're giving up on improving rasterazation and focusing on "ai cores" because they're using gpus to pay for the research into AI.
"Real" core count is going down on the 5000 series.
It's not what gamers want, but they're counting on people just buying the newest before asking if newer is really better. It's why they're already cutting 4000 series production, they just won't give people the option.
I think everything under 4070 super is already discontinued
-
She thought ray tracing was anti-wrinkle treatment
-
Or from the sounds of it, doing things more efficiently.
Fewer cycles required, less hardware required.Maybe this was an inevitability, if you cut off access to the fast hardware, you create a natural advantage for more efficient systems.
-
It’s a reaction to thinking China has better AI
I don't think this is the primary reason behind Nvidia's drop. Because as long as they got a massive technological lead it doesn't matter as much to them who has the best model, as long as these companies use their GPUs to train them.
The real change is that the compute resources (which is Nvidia's product) needed to create a great model suddenly fell of a cliff. Whereas until now the name of the game was that more is better and scale is everything.
China vs the West (or upstart vs big players) matters to those who are investing in creating those models. So for example Meta, who presumably spends a ton of money on high paying engineers and data centers, and somehow got upstaged by someone else with a fraction of their resources.
-
From what I understand, it's more that it takes a lot less money to train your own llms with the same powers with this one than to pay license to one of the expensive ones. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong
-
That's generally how tech goes though. You throw hardware at the problem until it works, and then you optimize it to run on laptops and eventually phones. Usually hardware improvements and software optimizations meet somewhere in the middle.
Look at photo and video editing, you used to need a workstation for that, and now you can get most of it on your phone. Surely AI is destined to follow the same path, with local models getting more and more robust until eventually the beefy cloud services are no longer required.
-
...in a cave with Chinese knockoffs!
-
It's about cheap Chinese AI
-
The problem for American tech companies is that they didn't even try to move to stage 2.
OpenAI is hemorrhaging money even on their most expensive subscription and their entire business plan was to hemorrhage money even faster to the point they would use entire power stations to power their data centers. Their plan makes about as much sense as digging your self out of a hole by trying to dig to the other side of the globe.
-
China really has nothing to do with it, it could have been anyone. It's a reaction to realizing that GPT4-equivalent AI models are dramatically cheaper to train than previously thought.
It being China is a noteable detail because it really drives the nail in the coffin for NVIDIA, because China has been fenced off from having access to NVIDIA's most expensive AI GPUs that were thought to be required to pull thia off.
It also makes the USA gov look extremely foolish to have made major foreign policy and relationship sacrifices in order to try to delay China by a few years, when it's January and China has already caught up, and those sacrifices did not pay off
-
Hey, my friends and I would've made it to China if recess was a bit longer.
Seriously though, the goal for something like OpenAI shouldn't be to sell products to end customers, but to license models to companies that sell "solutions." I see these direct to consumer devices similarly to how GPU manufacturers see reference cards or how Valve sees the Steam Deck: they're a proof of concept for others to follow.
OpenAI should be looking to be more like ARM and less like Apple. If they do that, they might just grow into their valuation.
-
Oh US has been doing this kind of thing for decades! This isn't new.
