Essay: What Is the Endgame for Ukraine?
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President Trump is pushing to end the war that has been raging in Ukraine for more than three years. While Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has accepted the U.S. proposal for an unconditional 30-day cease-fire to pave the way for peace negotiations, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin hasn’t agreed so far. Talks between the U.S. and Russia are set to continue in the Middle East. Zelensky’s European allies, who are determined to prevent Kyiv’s capitulation, will also play a major role in shaping the outcome.
It is far from clear what a Russia-Ukraine agreement would look like. But a look at key precedents from the 20th century suggests a range of possible outcomes. A cease-fire deal could lead to another, more successful Russian invasion; the establishment of a Ukrainian puppet government under Russian influence; a hostile but relatively peaceful coexistence; or maybe even a Ukrainian comeback. It all depends on which lessons from history turn out to be the right ones.
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