We have completed our very successful attack on Hawaii
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Iranian social post comment in 2100:
Operation Midnight Hammer would've been successful if all our enriched uranium was in the targeted sites that day, it was honestly the only way they could've won in the Middle East. They bet the moon on a longshot and lost it all.
Edit to add: I have no idea whether Iran can deliver on it's rhetoric, just pointing out that it seems they'd already cleared out those sites, so the attack might have achieved nothing other than giving Iran the excuse they needed to accelerate their nuclear program. Also, they're visiting russia today, who do have nukes
according to the US intelligence agencies, Iran wasn't even close to enrich uranium enough to even think about making a weapon out of it. Iranian social post comments in 2100 will more likely be "hey, remember when the yanks bombed an empty desert and called it a success?" And they all laugh whole-heartedly and knees slapping
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I'm just saying that there's no fair comparison between USA in 1941 and Iran in 2025 because everything about their situations is different, despite the similar results we're likely to see.
I was neither agreeing or disagreeing with you.
History rhymes rather than repeats.
I think the parallels of a country being unjustly attacked by another, possibly leading to a world war, are worth considering.
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Yeah, maybe. I specifically said "better than if USA hadn't joined". I'm not convinced that the US bombing made Iran more likely to use a nuke compared to 2 days ago. Nor any other country, for that matter. But hell, as I keep saying, I might be totally wrong about that.
Not an expert by any stretch, but I would say it is infinitely more likely Iran deploys a nuke now. The US has spent a lot of time over the past 80 years doing whatever it wants to countries it doesn't like that don't have nukes, and it leaves alone countries that have them.
If I'm Iran, and I don't have a nuke, I would be on the phone 24/7 with Putin and Kim about using something they have to stage a "test" detonation on Iranian soil.
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History rhymes rather than repeats.
I think the parallels of a country being unjustly attacked by another, possibly leading to a world war, are worth considering.
No, I think beyond this meme there's zero to link the two. Far more ominous are the parallels to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Even down to the false claims of WMD.
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No, I think beyond this meme there's zero to link the two. Far more ominous are the parallels to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Even down to the false claims of WMD.
Yes, that parallel is much stronger.
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It's a good analogy (from my limited understanding, that really was how it was presented in Japan at the time.. At least for a short while) but I dang hope it's not an accurate one. The blunder of Pearl Harbor was eloquently put by this famous quote:
I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.
So the key question now is whether Iran was a sleeping giant with more resources to pull from, or if it's really defeated now (or soon to be). I personally believe Iran can't win a war against USA, but it's not going down without a fight. I'm no authority on the matter though, I might be dead wrong.
Israel by themselves is going to flatten them, and holocaust the entire population. I don't know what can be done.
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Man, with how things are going right now, I almost believed this was happening...
I mean, it kind of is.
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according to the US intelligence agencies, Iran wasn't even close to enrich uranium enough to even think about making a weapon out of it. Iranian social post comments in 2100 will more likely be "hey, remember when the yanks bombed an empty desert and called it a success?" And they all laugh whole-heartedly and knees slapping
That's actually scarier. We know for a fact there used to be nuclear facilities there, the locations weren't secret. So, if it turns out that "the yanks bombed an empty desert and called it a success", then it means those photos of trucks a few days ago were the Iranians moving not only the enriched uranium but also all their research and enriching machinery. Everything.
According to this May BBC article, the delay in producing a bomb wouldn't be in enriching the uranium, but in getting a functioning bomb to put it in:
US officials estimate that, if Iran chooses to pursue a weapon, it could produce weapons-grade material in less than two weeks and potentially build a bomb within months.
The Institute for Science and International Security concluded similarly that:
Iran can convert its current stock of 60 percent enriched uranium into 233 kg of weapon-grade uranium (WGU) in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), enough for 9 nuclear weapons, taken as 25 kg of WGU per weapon.
Iran could produce its first quantity of 25 kg of WGU in Fordow in as little as two to three days.
So, if the US attack didn't destroy Iran's uranium stock and it's enrichment facilities, then we have to hope they're correct about Iran needing months to build a bomb.
The problem is, that estimate assumes that Iran hasn't started developing weapons yet. Things that make me nervous about that assumption are:
- Iran managed to successfully hide their previous nuclear weapons development programme (Amad Project) from 1989 to 2002.
The project was made public in August 2002 by the NCRI (an exiled coalition of Iranian opposition parties). Iran claimed it was purely scientific research, but a lot of evidence has cropped up since disproving that statement. Old news, but the point is, no-one knew about it at the time.
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In Feb 2023, IAEA inspectors found uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, from two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges that had been configured in a way âsubstantially differentâ to what had been previously declared.
According to Iran, these were due to âunintended fluctuationsâ in enrichment levels that may have occurred during the transition period. -
On 10 June, the NCRI - yes, the same opposition parties - released a statement claiming that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons through a new program called the "Kavir Plan". According to them, the new project started in 2009 and involves six sites working on warheads and related technology i.e. working on the bit that US Officials said could take a few months.
The last point hasn't been verified by anyone else, so maybe it's not true. Maybe the NCRI simply want to start a war that will topple the current regime. We can hope, right?
OK, well, I've now completely depressed myself đ«€ Sorry, probably more information than you wanted too. I'll show myself out now.
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It's a good analogy (from my limited understanding, that really was how it was presented in Japan at the time.. At least for a short while) but I dang hope it's not an accurate one. The blunder of Pearl Harbor was eloquently put by this famous quote:
I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.
So the key question now is whether Iran was a sleeping giant with more resources to pull from, or if it's really defeated now (or soon to be). I personally believe Iran can't win a war against USA, but it's not going down without a fight. I'm no authority on the matter though, I might be dead wrong.
Iran is not a sleeping giant and this was not a mass casualty event. There is no substance here and I find it counterproductive
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Iranian social post comment in 2100:
Operation Midnight Hammer would've been successful if all our enriched uranium was in the targeted sites that day, it was honestly the only way they could've won in the Middle East. They bet the moon on a longshot and lost it all.
Edit to add: I have no idea whether Iran can deliver on it's rhetoric, just pointing out that it seems they'd already cleared out those sites, so the attack might have achieved nothing other than giving Iran the excuse they needed to accelerate their nuclear program. Also, they're visiting russia today, who do have nukes
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there is no "winning in the middle east", there never has been.
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I've been hearing that Iran has been getting close to nukes literally my entire life. But sure, now, finally, they were actually getting close to nukes. According to the two powers attacking them who needed a half-baked excuse to bomb yet another patch of desert. I'll bet.
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