The specter of a GTA 6 delay haunts the games industry: 'Some companies are going to tank' if they guess wrong, says analyst
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Yeah, the Witcher 3 release should have taught the game publishers this. CDPR delayed the launch by several months because the game wasn’t ready to ship yet. And the game was phenomenal, and received rave reviews pretty much across the board. Gamers were disappointed about the launch, but basically went “this game will be worth the wait.”
...and they followed it with Cyberpunk 2077's disastrous launch but ultimate success. So I wouldn't hold CDPR as a high standard.
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We're still talking about ~3 mil to ~150 mil. If the software dev costs for Mario 64 were closer to ~1.5 mil, what does that have to do with the argument being made?
I almost replied from my inbox; glad someone said it before I even got to it haha
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Well making bad games isn't working so well either is it...
The failure of a game doesn't come hand in hand with it being bad. Lots of studios are struggling right now, because there's just so much out there, and no one wants to compete with GTA.
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This will probably be the last time it ever happens. They're trying to get people to double dip, and plenty will, but the console install base isn't what it was when GTA V came out at the end of a generation. Plus we all know full well that the PC version will happen, whereas in yesteryear, we weren't sure.
the console install base isn't what it was when GTA V came out at the end of a generation.
At had a look to check the figures.
From the PlayStation perspective February 2025 estimates put the PS5 at 74.9m, while January 2013 estimates put the PS3 at 77m.
However Xbox is really letting their numbers lag with 28.3m Series consoles sold by September 2024 vs 77.2m 360 consoles by April 2013.
If we were just talking PlayStation I would say 97% is near enough to make no difference but if we compare both platforms together its only 67% and that is enough to influence strategy. A console only release in 2025 is unlikely to eclipse GTA5's position as "fastest-selling entertainment product in history".
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meh, I don't think that the reason AAA games are bad is because they cost less. I think it's just greed and rushing the developers.
I never said anything about the quality of the games. I'm speaking specifically to the monetization bullshit.
As I said elsewhere: budget boat happens in a lot of places. Greedy executive and publishers is one place. Overambitious design goals that get scrapped is another. There's also bad tools workflows, mismanagement, and any number of other contributing factors.
But even indie devs are getting screwed on pricing and making far less than they deserve to be in many cases.
If people keep buying CoD and Assassins Creed, devs will keep making them. And if they can't increase retail price to cover the budget they will find other ways to do it.
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the console install base isn't what it was when GTA V came out at the end of a generation.
At had a look to check the figures.
From the PlayStation perspective February 2025 estimates put the PS5 at 74.9m, while January 2013 estimates put the PS3 at 77m.
However Xbox is really letting their numbers lag with 28.3m Series consoles sold by September 2024 vs 77.2m 360 consoles by April 2013.
If we were just talking PlayStation I would say 97% is near enough to make no difference but if we compare both platforms together its only 67% and that is enough to influence strategy. A console only release in 2025 is unlikely to eclipse GTA5's position as "fastest-selling entertainment product in history".
A game like GTA is likely to drive console sales, but not enough to make up that deficit.
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It did. I've been a GTA player since the first one kn PS1.
I've bought every GTA game.
I have zero interest in GTA6.
not to mention they decided to block Linux users back in October. I had very little interest in it in the last 6 or 7 years, but I decided when a friend played it I would try to join, just to be met with performance issues and getting kicked offline due to their anticheat. So stupid. It worked for years in Linux, then they just decide to boot it.
I lost what little interest period in anything GTA from that.
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And only on PC
That's going to be a long wait my friend.
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Judging by all the shark card crap they jammed into the last GTA, I fully expect them to shovel a bunch of crap in to make more money: $70 base games, deluxe editions, DLC, micro transactions, social club integration, required internet connections, all of it.
I miss the old GTAs before they got greedy.
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big games get delayed, a lot
And yet so many of them still suck at launch.
That's cause the business side keeps pushing for increasingly unrealistic deadlines and will only accept delaying so much before forcing it out.
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the console install base isn't what it was when GTA V came out at the end of a generation.
At had a look to check the figures.
From the PlayStation perspective February 2025 estimates put the PS5 at 74.9m, while January 2013 estimates put the PS3 at 77m.
However Xbox is really letting their numbers lag with 28.3m Series consoles sold by September 2024 vs 77.2m 360 consoles by April 2013.
If we were just talking PlayStation I would say 97% is near enough to make no difference but if we compare both platforms together its only 67% and that is enough to influence strategy. A console only release in 2025 is unlikely to eclipse GTA5's position as "fastest-selling entertainment product in history".
But also don't forget that the amount of gamers is larger today than in 2013. Gaming is much more mainstream, and so even 97% of the install base is still disappointing considering steam grew by, what, 3x or something in terms of average monthly users?
Another source I found is that the amount of total gamers grew by roughly 50% from 2013 to 2025. But yeah, I just did a quick skin numbers are not precise
But still, 97% is disappointing considering the general demographic was supposed to grow. And then, in reality, it's just 67% too
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This is so strange. Wasn't it not long ago that studios were crowding into very specific release windows ( usually november iirc ) so they could maximize initial sales? Maybe the digital release era has changed things. I mean, I get it if your game was in the same niche or smth, but "companies might tank" seems a little much.
Either way, if this is true, eoy 2025 is in for a dry spell when it comes to new games.
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This is so strange. Wasn't it not long ago that studios were crowding into very specific release windows ( usually november iirc ) so they could maximize initial sales? Maybe the digital release era has changed things. I mean, I get it if your game was in the same niche or smth, but "companies might tank" seems a little much.
Either way, if this is true, eoy 2025 is in for a dry spell when it comes to new games.
Sure is a great way to stir the pot, that's for sure. This article raised my eyebrow so much I just had to share it.
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I'm not quite sure why they're so concerned. I suspect they're actually not and this is just things "analysts" say.
I suspect that the release of GTA VI is going to be lukewarm compared to the release of GTA V, because everyone remembered what Rockstar did to GTA V. People are going to wait around and see how they handle GTA online because they need to do better than last time because last time was ridiculous.
I'm certainly not all that interested in getting it day one and I know a lot of other people aren't either.
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Huh? For £70 I'm getting -
- Huge open world
- Very fun and emergent gameplay
- Likely a world with multiple competing systems and subsystems to play with
- Incredibly detailed world to get lost and immersed in
- Given the RDR2 writing, likely a really well written story
But you've decided to latch onto one aspect of the previous game (the Online mode) to try to be as contrarian as possible?
I sure as heck will pay £70 for the above. And so will many millions of others. Sorry if that does a poo on your hate-train.
You hope you'll get those things. It's Rockstar though so who really knows. I mean we do know we're going to get a single player that's been confirmed by Rockstar but everything else is just a guess. The map leak people seem to suggest that the map will include NASA and Disneyland which will be cool I guess, but we don't know that that's just a prediction and I don't quite understand how they can predict that.
I just don't trust Rockstar not to screw it up with GTA online 2, now with more irritating flying bikes
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They lost Lazlow... There goes the greatest radio DJ to ever grace the gta airwaves.
When they added purchasable clubs into online and you could get Lazlow to come to your club, I made it my entire goal to make him happy, I spent so much cash keeping him dancing, always made me sad seeing him sitting there alone as the reality of it all hit him.
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...and they followed it with Cyberpunk 2077's disastrous launch but ultimate success. So I wouldn't hold CDPR as a high standard.
I’d argue that is just another example of why delaying games isn’t a bad thing. 2077 clearly wasn’t ready at launch, and would have benefitted from a delayed launch.
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I’d argue that is just another example of why delaying games isn’t a bad thing. 2077 clearly wasn’t ready at launch, and would have benefitted from a delayed launch.
I feel like that one was also due to awful development practices, they had the whole scrapping the entire first 2 years of work thing due to a control freak lead dev who was ultimately releaved of his position (though not until after release iirc)
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I'm not quite sure why they're so concerned. I suspect they're actually not and this is just things "analysts" say.
I suspect that the release of GTA VI is going to be lukewarm compared to the release of GTA V, because everyone remembered what Rockstar did to GTA V. People are going to wait around and see how they handle GTA online because they need to do better than last time because last time was ridiculous.
I'm certainly not all that interested in getting it day one and I know a lot of other people aren't either.
I don't know. Gamers have very short memory and are drived by FOMO and social media coverage.
Just look at the whole Cyberpunk situation. Or, more recently, the Sparking Zero drama. Everyone pre-ordered the 120$ edition to play earlier, just because of shiny graphics
️. Then, when the honey moon phase was over, the subreddit turned into a shithole full of frustration and complaints. All you can see now is reports of bugs, glitches and so on. But still, most of these folks are already considering the purchase of SZ2, cause they are sure devs will definitely fix the issues.Just watch GTA 6 pre-orders skyrocket as soon as Rockstar drops the 2nd trailer, next year.
