The first exit polls for the German federal elections are out
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I’m talking about compared to the polling averages.
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Not necessarily so bad for the Greens. They are the only party of the current government that has not lost a massive amount of votes. They have more or less maintained their position, so not good, but not bad either.
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Even there I don't see them doing particularly bad. Also the ARD Exit Polls differ a bit from the ones from ZDF
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Note, currently BSW and FDP are both below 5 percent which means they won't get into the Bundestag which drastically changes the number of seats the other parties get. As long as they don't go over 5 % a coalition between the Union and SPD is possible.
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Hope it'll stay closer to ARD's exit poll, with FDP and BSW both under 5%. Grand coalition is the best we can reasonably get. It'll be way more stable than any 3-party coalition and I think we really need a stable government capable of getting shit done these next few years.
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That's the goal, isnt it? Otherwise it will become another turmoil coalition
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No worries ppl. It can only get worse!
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I had some hope for a Union + Greens coalition but it doesn't look like that will be possible.
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Depending on which statistician you are asking they also might have just enough to get in
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Would it not be possible for a 3-party coalition to be perfectly stable? We've had many of those in the Netherlands that went just fine, I believe. Though I guess given the lack of a threshold, those parties might differ less than they do in Germany?
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It's not that bad. There is a "firewall" around the AfD, so a coalition with the CDU isn't possible.
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Possible maybe, but such a coalition would either involve the Greens, who are absolutely despised by parts of the Union to the point of Bavarian Minister-president Markus Söder declaring them their main enemy and ruling out any coalition, or the FDP, who sabotaged our previous government, caused its collapse and is thus hated by the SPD. The BSW is not a realistic coalition partner with its Pro-Russian stance. So any option for a 3-party coalition would likely result in a lot of conflict and chaos in my opinion. Chaos which the AfD can use to its benefit.
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Dude, that "firewall" was set ablaze weeks ago by the CDU...
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Problem is, that CDU, SPD will likely be the coalition, where the SPD has no Backbone while the CSU can do whatever the fuck they want (which is paving the way for AfD)
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If German politicians behaved like adult human beings, and did, as they are supposed to, work for the good of the entire country, then, this would work. The problem is that they don't, most of the time.
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I kinda wondered about BSW though. They are left, they are anti-immigration and they are capable of pulling votes from AfD and Die Linke - the two parties that compete most with CDU/CSU and SPD, respectively.
So they could be quite a strategic partner.
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In my opinion, the AfD stands to gain far more from another ineffective, quarreling 3-party coalition than from a CDU government with a pushover SPD. That way, the greens will also have an opportunity to rebuild their strength in opposition for the next election. They won't have that while governing with the CDU. Trust me, it's far from my preferred coalition, but I think it would be the best with the hand we were dealt.
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BSW completely depends on their (Co-) party chairwoman and name giver Sahra Wagenknecht who is simply unwilling to bear gouvernmental responsibility. And she is considered to be a russian mouthpiece.
Merz ruled out to form a coalition with BSW and I don't see any sane person who would try to sway this decision.
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They have repeatedly made it clear that for them to even consider a coalition, the other parties would have to agree to stop all support for Ukraine and make peace with Russia with a full normalisation of relations. Sarah Wagenknecht won't budge on that, and that makes any coalition talks with them unfeasible for the other parties.
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Can someone please explain this for a non-German. I know there was a large concern with the AfD, but what do the results mean so far?
