I really hope this is the beginning of massive correction on AI hype.

[email protected]

...in a cave with Chinese knockoffs!

[email protected]

It's about cheap Chinese AI

[email protected]

The problem for American tech companies is that they didn't even try to move to stage 2.

OpenAI is hemorrhaging money even on their most expensive subscription and their entire business plan was to hemorrhage money even faster to the point they would use entire power stations to power their data centers. Their plan makes about as much sense as digging your self out of a hole by trying to dig to the other side of the globe.

[email protected]

China really has nothing to do with it, it could have been anyone. It's a reaction to realizing that GPT4-equivalent AI models are dramatically cheaper to train than previously thought.

It being China is a noteable detail because it really drives the nail in the coffin for NVIDIA, because China has been fenced off from having access to NVIDIA's most expensive AI GPUs that were thought to be required to pull thia off.

It also makes the USA gov look extremely foolish to have made major foreign policy and relationship sacrifices in order to try to delay China by a few years, when it's January and China has already caught up, and those sacrifices did not pay off

[email protected]

Hey, my friends and I would've made it to China if recess was a bit longer.

Seriously though, the goal for something like OpenAI shouldn't be to sell products to end customers, but to license models to companies that sell "solutions." I see these direct to consumer devices similarly to how GPU manufacturers see reference cards or how Valve sees the Steam Deck: they're a proof of concept for others to follow.

OpenAI should be looking to be more like ARM and less like Apple. If they do that, they might just grow into their valuation.

[email protected]

Oh US has been doing this kind of thing for decades! This isn't new.

[email protected]

Prices rarely, if ever, go down and there is a push across the board to offload things "to the cloud" for a range of reasons.

That said: If your focus is on gaming, AMD is REAL good these days and, if you can get past their completely nonsensical naming scheme, you can often get a really good GPU using "last year's" technology for 500-800 USD (discounted to 400-600 or so).

[email protected]

Pelosi says AI frames are fake frames.

[email protected]

xx_Pelosi420_xx doesn't settle for incremental upgrades

[email protected]

I'm using an Rx6700xt which you can get for about £300 and it works fine.

[email protected]

They definitely used to go down, just not since Bitcoin morphed into a speculative mania.

[email protected]

Does it still need people spending huge amounts of time to train models?

After doing neural networks, fuzzy logic, etc. in university, I really question the whole usability of what is called "AI" outside niche use cases.

[email protected]

Ah, see, the mistake you’re making is actually understanding the topic at hand.

[email protected]

I really don't believe the technological lead is massive.

[email protected]

Looking at the market cap of Nvidia vs their competitors the market belives it is, considering they just lost more than AMD/Intel and the likes are worth combined and still are valued at $2.9 billion.

And with technology i mean both the performance of their hardware and the software stack they've created, which is a big part of their dominance.

[email protected]

I wouldn't be surprised if China spent more on AI development than the west did, sure here we spent tens of billions while China only invested a few million but that few million was actually spent on the development while out of the tens of billions all but 5$ was spent on bonuses and yachts.

[email protected]

You joke but there's a lot of grandma/grandpa gamers these days. Remember someone who played PC games back in the 80s would be on their 50s or 60s now. Or even older if they picked up the hobby as an adult in the 80s

[email protected]

Yeah. I don't believe market value is a great indicator in this case. In general, I would say that capital markets are rational at a macro level, but not micro. This is all speculation/gambling.

My guess is that AMD and Intel are at most 1 year behind Nvidia when it comes to tech stack. "China", maybe 2 years, probably less.

However, if you can make chips with 80% performance at 10% price, its a win. People can continue to tell themselves that big tech always will buy the latest and greatest whatever the cost. It does not make it true. I mean, it hasn't been true for a really long time. Google, Meta and Amazon already make their own chips. That's probably true for DeepSeek as well.

[email protected]

If inputText = "hello" then
Respond.text("hello there")
ElseIf inputText (...)

[email protected]

Yeah. I don’t believe market value is a great indicator in this case. In general, I would say that capital markets are rational at a macro level, but not micro. This is all speculation/gambling.

I have to concede that point to some degree, since i guess i hold similar views with Tesla's value vs the rest of the automotive Industry. But i still think that the basic hirarchy holds true with nvidia being significantly ahead of the pack.

My guess is that AMD and Intel are at most 1 year behind Nvidia when it comes to tech stack. “China”, maybe 2 years, probably less.

Imo you are too optimistic with those estimations, particularly with Intel and China, although i am not an expert in the field.

As i see it AMD seems to have a quite decent product with their instinct cards in the server market on the hardware side, but they wish they'd have something even close to CUDA and its mindshare. Which would take years to replicate. Intel wish they were only a year behind Nvidia. And i'd like to comment on China, but tbh i have little to no knowledge of their state in GPU development. If they are "2 years, probably less" behind as you say, then they should have something like the rtx 4090, which was released end of 2022. But do they have something that even rivals the 2000 or 3000 series cards?

However, if you can make chips with 80% performance at 10% price, its a win. People can continue to tell themselves that big tech always will buy the latest and greatest whatever the cost. It does not make it true.

But the issue is they all make their chips at the same manufacturer, TSMC, even Intel in the case of their GPUs. So they can't really differentiate much on manufacturing costs and are also competing on the same limited supply. So no one can offer 80% of performance at 10% price, or even close to it. Additionally everything around the GPU (datacenters, rack space, power useage during operation etc.) also costs, so it is only part of the overall package cost and you also want to optimize for your limited space. As i understand it datacenter building and power delivery for them is actually another limiting factor right now for the hyperscalers.

Google, Meta and Amazon already make their own chips. That’s probably true for DeepSeek as well.

Google yes with their TPUs, but the others all use Nvidia or AMD chips to train. Amazon has their Graviton CPUs, which are quite competitive, but i don't think they have anything on the GPU side. DeepSeek is way to small and new for custom chips, they evolved out of a hedge fund and just use nvidia GPUs as more or less everyone else.

agnos.is Forums

I really hope this is the beginning of massive correction on AI hype.