Airbus chairman sees ‘strong indications’ an emboldened Putin is mobilizing forces to attack NATO’s eastern flank
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While this is true in general, it's a slippery slope. If you look at current state, even now we are enabling genocide in Palestine under disguise of protecting others. With greater power the temptation will only rise. OTOH we need to exercise our interests, hopefully humane and legitimate.
They can only do that because the USA backs them. Imagine a world where everyone would tell them to fuck off and actually do something if they do not. So less blablabla and more doing like with the first Gulf war. August 1990 Sadam fucked around and only 5 months later they found out. Simple.
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I will answer your questions because I’m always very interested in discussing these things in a controversial manner but first, can I play your last question back to you just to understand where you’re coming from?
How would this go down in your mind?
Finland, Sweden, and Estonia will take over St. Petersburg while Russia is busy trying to take a Baltic region that has the support of the rest of Europe? Not to mention I think Poland won't allow that shit to happen a THIRD time in about a century - they've been prepping for awhile now.
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Finland, Sweden, and Estonia will take over St. Petersburg while Russia is busy trying to take a Baltic region that has the support of the rest of Europe? Not to mention I think Poland won't allow that shit to happen a THIRD time in about a century - they've been prepping for awhile now.
That won’t happen. I’m not a nuclear alarmist but the Russian military will 100% use tactical nukes before they allow a foreign military to capture one of their major cities.
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Can you link those security experts etc.?
You mean stronger as in number of military personnel, right? That and % GDP spend seem to be the only metric where Ukraine is #2. But it should be rather obvious that 2 countries at war will have more personnel and money spend. Ukraine was around 300'000 pre 2022. They are at 2.2 million now. Why should such a change not be possible everywhere? Are you assuming that the current peace time armies will stay locked in place instead of growing 10-fold? Than there would be no massive shift to a war time economy?
Lately I’ve been reading and listening to Hamish de Bretton-Gordon (Former commander in the British Forces), Ulrike Franke (EU Council of Foreign Relations), Frank Sauer (Bundeswehr University Munich) and Markus Reisner (General in the Austrian Forces). While I don’t copy my view 1:1 from what they’re saying, I think you’ll find that they echo my worries and nobody with a deep understanding of the current situation of NATO and Europe thinks that we will just walk over Russia in an armed conflict.
Regarding your second paragraph, I think we are actually largely in agreement here. Europe definitely has the potential to be a lot stronger than Russia (and that alone would be enough deterrence to prevent an actual war). The problem is that we aren’t right now and we need to change that, and fast.
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They can only do that because the USA backs them. Imagine a world where everyone would tell them to fuck off and actually do something if they do not. So less blablabla and more doing like with the first Gulf war. August 1990 Sadam fucked around and only 5 months later they found out. Simple.
US and Europe lead by Germany. As per Sadam, you're referring to that war where Iraqi soldiers were throwing Kuwaiti newborns out of incubators? What about the recent one where fictional WMDs were the trigger to obliterate them including civilians?
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The headline should have been "Weapons manufacturer thinks everyone should buy more weapons".
Just because he can profit from that doesn't mean he's wrong.
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That won’t happen. I’m not a nuclear alarmist but the Russian military will 100% use tactical nukes before they allow a foreign military to capture one of their major cities.
And if Russia does so Germany and France might do the same.
Hence why they haven't picked any fights against NATO either.
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And if Russia does so Germany and France might do the same.
Hence why they haven't picked any fights against NATO either.
Germany doesn’t have nuclear weapons.
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US and Europe lead by Germany. As per Sadam, you're referring to that war where Iraqi soldiers were throwing Kuwaiti newborns out of incubators? What about the recent one where fictional WMDs were the trigger to obliterate them including civilians?
And don’t forget Hamas beheading babies! Some racist trope about barbaric middle easterners killing babies always gets our juices flowing.
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That won’t happen. I’m not a nuclear alarmist but the Russian military will 100% use tactical nukes before they allow a foreign military to capture one of their major cities.
I think this is a correct assessment. Beating Russia back from their invasions is one thing, going after one of their major cities however is a red line where I think they will actually deploy nukes.
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Germany doesn’t have nuclear weapons.
Germany has american nukes stationed in germany. France has also declared that their nukes will cover nato, as well as british nukes.
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Mr. Obermann may have a business interest here, but his remarks regarding Russia's economy are absolutely valid. Putin has turned Russia into a 'war economy' with the whole country depending on war. Even Russian economists -including from the Central Bank- warn that the country will be facing difficult times if peace breaks out (which may also mean it would be difficult for Putin to stay in power as soon as the war ends and there is no enemy anymore).
So Obermann's comment that "the internal pressure [in Russia] to deliver new victories through military conquest likely will grow", is very real. Putin put his country on a war path for the long term. For example, Russia's defense minister is an economist claiming that war would be a requirement for economic growth (this is, of course, complete rubbish, but this comes from Russia's government).
I wrote a comment regarding Russia's economy in a different thread and don't want to repeat it, so here is the link if you are interested: https://slrpnk.net/post/19670037/14488418
Russia's war economy is partially a response to sanctions, not just some cynical power grab by Putin. If the sanctions end they'll be able to wind down and focus on peaceful development.
Russians do not have an endless appetite for war. They aren't orcs.
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Do you disagree?
Starting war directly with NATO would start WW3. It would trigger a cascade of responses that lead to nuclear armageddon.
I doubt Russia wants that.
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Russia's war economy is partially a response to sanctions, not just some cynical power grab by Putin. If the sanctions end they'll be able to wind down and focus on peaceful development.
Russians do not have an endless appetite for war. They aren't orcs.
Russians do not have an endless appetite for war. They aren’t orcs.
They should prove it by not starting endless fucking wars then. Maybe honor at least one(1) fucking peace agreement you've made.
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That won’t happen. I’m not a nuclear alarmist but the Russian military will 100% use tactical nukes before they allow a foreign military to capture one of their major cities.
I agree but russian nukes have been historically poorly maintained and in a terrible condition. They had Ukranians maintain them who stopped for some reason in 2014.
Surely some will work but in the same way they don't have the navy they claimed they have, the army they claimed they have they sure as hell don't have the nukes they claim they have. -
Germany has american nukes stationed in germany. France has also declared that their nukes will cover nato, as well as british nukes.
USA being a russian puppet, Germany doesn't have nuclear weapons.
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Starting war directly with NATO would start WW3. It would trigger a cascade of responses that lead to nuclear armageddon.
I doubt Russia wants that.
No they don't want this, and the West keeps falling for their nuke saber rattling bullshit every time, going back decades. Russia is not going to nuke anyone.
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Starting war directly with NATO would start WW3. It would trigger a cascade of responses that lead to nuclear armageddon.
I doubt Russia wants that.
Okay sure, nuclear war. With what weapons? France’s nuclear arsenal is tiny and the US will not defend Europe.
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Germany has american nukes stationed in germany. France has also declared that their nukes will cover nato, as well as british nukes.
Exactly, as I said. Germany has no nuclear weapons.
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Russia's war economy is partially a response to sanctions, not just some cynical power grab by Putin. If the sanctions end they'll be able to wind down and focus on peaceful development.
Russians do not have an endless appetite for war. They aren't orcs.
Russia has been terrorizing their neighboring countries ever since the millennium. Actually, when you go further back in history, you could say that being incredibly cruel to their neighbors (and their own population) is one of the core traits of Russians.
