Risk of large asteroid striking Earth falls to 1.5%
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Just give us the confidence interval and stop updating. We will know better in January 2029 once it has passed by and been tugged by our gravity and the moons.
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There's always a chance that we can hit by a gamma-ray burst.
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Relevant username
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Yeah, but mummies can be friendly.. asteroids are a sure thing. Just ask the dinosaurs.
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Dontgivemehope.meme
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Unfortunately, Washington is outside of the possible impact zone. (Well, Washington in Brazil is inside, but it's not about that one.)
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Could it even completely obliterate the moon? Just not being tidally locked would be awful, but completely changing its trajectory/orbit and probably fuck up our atmosphere with debris seems more likely
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It's probably not big enough to shatter the moon, but enough to at least alter its orbit. I'm not enough of an astrophysicist to say how much. I haven't looked up the forces involved, so I can't even give a ballpark estimate.
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Boourns!
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As someone who's played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.
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Here's the upside: new species will evolve that can take better advantage of the new environment.
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I'm a Powerball man...
Those are great odds!
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Much much much much larger objects have hit the moon in the past
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Can we please not post daily updates? This is still 7 years away
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As someone who's played XCom, a 1.5% chance of a bad thing (questionable) means it's gonna critically hit
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It technically would alter the moons orbit, but not by a lot. This asteroid would impact with roughly the energy of a nuclear bomb, which sounds like a lot, but on the scale of our moon it's negligible.
A rough estimation given my limited understanding of physics is that to change the moon's orbit by 1 m/s, you would need to impart something like 10²² joules of energy into it. Wikipedia says that if this asteroid hits the moon, the impact energy will be around 10¹⁶ joules. I don't know how much you know about exponents, but 10¹⁶ is approximately 0% of the way to 10²², and that's just change of 1 m/s
Of course, someone who actually understands physics is free to correct me if I'm wrong
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Is this the new seven minutes to midnight? We're 1.5% to asteroid.
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As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.
Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh
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"Hey, little guy, is an asteroid gonna kill us all?"
Cluck cluck!
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Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?
