The first exit polls for the German federal elections are out
-
As a foreigner in Germany, CDU is not centrist at all. Maybe you should consider how your definition of "center" changed in the last years. CDU is a right wing party, CSU even more, leaning into populist views, Afd is extremist.
I wish SPD was left. Most of its policies of the last years were pretty much the same as right wing parties.
CDU was always center-right and SPD center-left. In the last years SPD slowly drifted to center. Some still consider them center-left.
You should check on the definition of extremist. The AfD ist far-right, yes, but not extremist (yet).
-
In my opinion, the AfD stands to gain far more from another ineffective, quarreling 3-party coalition than from a CDU government with a pushover SPD. That way, the greens will also have an opportunity to rebuild their strength in opposition for the next election. They won't have that while governing with the CDU. Trust me, it's far from my preferred coalition, but I think it would be the best with the hand we were dealt.
That may be true. I dont know what effect would be more important. We will never know.
-
I kinda wondered about BSW though. They are left, they are anti-immigration and they are capable of pulling votes from AfD and Die Linke - the two parties that compete most with CDU/CSU and SPD, respectively.
So they could be quite a strategic partner.
BSW is basically the United Russia party of Germany. And they will not get any seats in parliament according to the current projections.
-
Germany will probably get a centrist-right (CDU/CSU) government with a centrist-left junior partner (SPD).
Centrist-right is far left in US terms.I expect stagnancy in German politics for the next 4 years. -_-
CDU/CSU are basically what Republicans have been a couple years ago. They are very much far right, just not facist.
-
Can someone please explain this for a non-German. I know there was a large concern with the AfD, but what do the results mean so far?
Aside from what the others have said, there is also a 2nd exit poll, with slightly different estimations. If reality will match this one, the BSW will get into parliament. They are a splinter party of the leftists, taking a most of the tankie nutcases with them.
They won't be in government or important opposition, but if they make it, the 2 centrist parties alone don't have enough seats. This means they need a 3rd party to form a government, and they have no good options. The preferred party would be FDP, but they are estimated to not make it. The greens would normally be up to it, but CDU/CSU campaign has mostly run on getting the greens out of government. And the Leftist, BSW and AFD are all too extreme for the very pensioner friendly CDU/CSU.
There is a chance we simply won't have a stable government and will have to redo this election, but from most to least likely:
- Reality is closer to the first poll, boring centrist government, AFD can try again in 4 years
- The CDU will make some meaningless concessions to the greens and the greens will fall for it
- The CDU will completely destroy any trust and form a government with AFD
- There won't be any stable government and a new election is called.
- Any Leftists in Government
- There won't be a stable government, our president still elects a chancellor, we will have 4 weeks of a minority government and then someone triggers new elections.
-
No worries ppl. It can only get worse!
Worst possible outcome right now: BSW gets just enough votes to make it into parliament.
This results in an unstable government, since CDU/CSU and the expected partner SPD don't have enough seats, with no one willing to help form the government. New elections are called shortly after.
BSW can destroy parliament by simply existing (well, the voters who put us in this situation with so much AFD), and the only hope is that we throw out all their votes when they don't reach 5%. I don't think it's likely, but it is possible.
-
The shit neo-Nazi filled AfD gained a lot of ground. WTF.
-
CDU was always center-right and SPD center-left. In the last years SPD slowly drifted to center. Some still consider them center-left.
You should check on the definition of extremist. The AfD ist far-right, yes, but not extremist (yet).
The CDU always has contained everything from centre-left to far-right, as long it's compatible with democracy. Their right wing is about en par with Reagan, their left wing with, dunno, Harris, status quo liberals in general. They're not about to abolish public healthcare, gutting unemployment benefits OTOH is up their alley. Social conservatism wise they tend to brake a lot, but aren't prone to be regressive, like wanting to roll back gay rights or something. Or, differently put, they won't be any more conservative the EKD which is absolutely fine with reverends having gay sex in the vicarage as long as it's monogamous.
-
Söder pretty much declared the Greens their main enemy. I don't think there'll be a coalition of CDU/CSU and Green in the Bundestag until CxU declares a new main enemy (why not AfD?).
Söder understands the difference between electoral rhetoric and Realpolitik and so do CSU voters. And theatrics. He can go "I'll keep an eye on those breaknecks, make sure they don't convince the CDU of anything stupid", occasionally make noise, and keep it at that.
The "main enemy" thing is absolutely true, of course, just have a look over the border to BW. But that's about state, not federal, politics, and as long as the CSU keeps ruling Bavaria they're happy.
-
BSW completely depends on their (Co-) party chairwoman and name giver Sahra Wagenknecht who is simply unwilling to bear gouvernmental responsibility. And she is considered to be a russian mouthpiece.
Merz ruled out to form a coalition with BSW and I don't see any sane person who would try to sway this decision.
Thanks guys for answering. As a Dutch person I don't know all the details.
I guess it's really good you guys have a 5% threshold. Here in the Netherlands, things are just too chaotic without it.
-
CDU was always center-right and SPD center-left. In the last years SPD slowly drifted to center. Some still consider them center-left.
You should check on the definition of extremist. The AfD ist far-right, yes, but not extremist (yet).
If Elon Musk is showing up at their events telling them not to be ashamed of their history, then they are absolutely extremist.
-
Possible maybe, but such a coalition would either involve the Greens, who are absolutely despised by parts of the Union to the point of Bavarian Minister-president Markus Söder declaring them their main enemy and ruling out any coalition, or the FDP, who sabotaged our previous government, caused its collapse and is thus hated by the SPD. The BSW is not a realistic coalition partner with its Pro-Russian stance. So any option for a 3-party coalition would likely result in a lot of conflict and chaos in my opinion. Chaos which the AfD can use to its benefit.
Right, that makes sense. So I suppose it's indeed the threshold and parties have more differing opinions.
-
Thanks guys for answering. As a Dutch person I don't know all the details.
I guess it's really good you guys have a 5% threshold. Here in the Netherlands, things are just too chaotic without it.
I mean, CDU/CSU and SPD have a majority with 45% of the votes, and 14% of the votes did not result in seats. That doesn't sound like an improvement to me. (Compared to the Netherlands - still beter than FPTP systems.)
-
Voting for conservatives makes planes fall out of the fucking sky
do they want planes falling out of the fucking sky because that's how they get planes falling out of the fucking sky
-
I mean, CDU/CSU and SPD have a majority with 45% of the votes, and 14% of the votes did not result in seats. That doesn't sound like an improvement to me. (Compared to the Netherlands - still beter than FPTP systems.)
I disagree, it's definitely an improvement to the infinite amount of parties we have.
-
I disagree, it's definitely an improvement to the infinite amount of parties we have.
I mean, you could just not vote for the fringe parties then?
(Oh, you already don't do that? So it's other people's votes you want to cancel? See what I mean - arguing for a threshold is essentially arguing for less democracy.)
-
I mean, you could just not vote for the fringe parties then?
(Oh, you already don't do that? So it's other people's votes you want to cancel? See what I mean - arguing for a threshold is essentially arguing for less democracy.)
It's not about cancelling anyone. It's about not having to wait 200-300 days to get a new government after every election.
I have often voted for very small parties and they never make it into the coalition. I really wouldn't mind if they didn't make it into Parliament either.
It's not like the BSW or FDP voters really lost that much - their parties would be doomed to be opposition anyway. Their voters knew that was a likely outcome based on the polls. And next election they might reach the threshold.
But the country as a whole gains efficiency.
-
Can someone please explain this for a non-German. I know there was a large concern with the AfD, but what do the results mean so far?
It's not as bad as some polls suggested, but it's pretty fucking bad.
There are few options for coalition-building that don't involve the far-right AfD as the other parties have promised. Meanwhile the far-right and conservative right hold an absolute majority between them, giving them options to approve a lot of heinous shit as they've shown they are willing to do in line with their xenophobic rhetoric.
The upsides are that the Left successfully reinvented their profile and made major gains after being pronounced dead (for the 8th time), the Greens didn't lose as much as the anti-woke anti-education narratives suggested, and the neoliberals are fully out after torpedoing their own government coalition.
-
The CDU always has contained everything from centre-left to far-right, as long it's compatible with democracy. Their right wing is about en par with Reagan, their left wing with, dunno, Harris, status quo liberals in general. They're not about to abolish public healthcare, gutting unemployment benefits OTOH is up their alley. Social conservatism wise they tend to brake a lot, but aren't prone to be regressive, like wanting to roll back gay rights or something. Or, differently put, they won't be any more conservative the EKD which is absolutely fine with reverends having gay sex in the vicarage as long as it's monogamous.
Socially they absolutely aim to turn back time. They've promised to revoke gender self-identification and marijuana legalization for instance, and they're all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric. Regardless of how much they may struggle to come up with excuses to legitimize it, this is what resonates with the people they're courting right now - voters that abandoned them for AfD or at least are considering it.
-
Socially they absolutely aim to turn back time. They've promised to revoke gender self-identification and marijuana legalization for instance, and they're all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric. Regardless of how much they may struggle to come up with excuses to legitimize it, this is what resonates with the people they're courting right now - voters that abandoned them for AfD or at least are considering it.
They’ve promised to revoke gender self-identification
...no. And their opposition to the law wasn't transphobic (in the strict sense) in the first place but regarded abuse potential, which is why the law that got passed says that name changes are transmitted to police etc. so they can figure out whether someone's trying to escape justice that way. Queer community of course didn't like that but it did insulate the whole thing against attacks from the right.
and marijuana legalization for instance
They won't. Also they'd fail before the constitutional court as outlawing it back then was not scrutinised by the same standards the constitutional court would apply now. Fixing it, OTOH, forget it.
and they’re all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric
Hell they aren't because SMEs aren't. Merz picked that up in a (stupid) attempt to get AfD votes. The CDU is captured by lobby interests and the lobby wants immigrant workers. Loudly. Vocally. The whole economy of the whole east is up in arms about lacking workers and the AfD scaring away those they could get. They're going to bury the topic as quickly as they can. That Netanjahu invitation might actually be exactly that: That's giving the Springer press opportunity to forget about the whole xenophobia thing and instead focus on purported anti-semitism on the left. Because, *checks notes*, executing international arrest warrants is antisemitic. Expect candlelight vigils with pictures of sniped children, I'm confident Die Linke knows how to play that one, this isn't about preventing the visit at all costs but exposing bigotry on the right. Did I already mention that Merz sucks at strategy?
