The first exit polls for the German federal elections are out
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Söder pretty much declared the Greens their main enemy. I don't think there'll be a coalition of CDU/CSU and Green in the Bundestag until CxU declares a new main enemy (why not AfD?).
Söder understands the difference between electoral rhetoric and Realpolitik and so do CSU voters. And theatrics. He can go "I'll keep an eye on those breaknecks, make sure they don't convince the CDU of anything stupid", occasionally make noise, and keep it at that.
The "main enemy" thing is absolutely true, of course, just have a look over the border to BW. But that's about state, not federal, politics, and as long as the CSU keeps ruling Bavaria they're happy.
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BSW completely depends on their (Co-) party chairwoman and name giver Sahra Wagenknecht who is simply unwilling to bear gouvernmental responsibility. And she is considered to be a russian mouthpiece.
Merz ruled out to form a coalition with BSW and I don't see any sane person who would try to sway this decision.
Thanks guys for answering. As a Dutch person I don't know all the details.
I guess it's really good you guys have a 5% threshold. Here in the Netherlands, things are just too chaotic without it.
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CDU was always center-right and SPD center-left. In the last years SPD slowly drifted to center. Some still consider them center-left.
You should check on the definition of extremist. The AfD ist far-right, yes, but not extremist (yet).
If Elon Musk is showing up at their events telling them not to be ashamed of their history, then they are absolutely extremist.
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Possible maybe, but such a coalition would either involve the Greens, who are absolutely despised by parts of the Union to the point of Bavarian Minister-president Markus Söder declaring them their main enemy and ruling out any coalition, or the FDP, who sabotaged our previous government, caused its collapse and is thus hated by the SPD. The BSW is not a realistic coalition partner with its Pro-Russian stance. So any option for a 3-party coalition would likely result in a lot of conflict and chaos in my opinion. Chaos which the AfD can use to its benefit.
Right, that makes sense. So I suppose it's indeed the threshold and parties have more differing opinions.
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Thanks guys for answering. As a Dutch person I don't know all the details.
I guess it's really good you guys have a 5% threshold. Here in the Netherlands, things are just too chaotic without it.
I mean, CDU/CSU and SPD have a majority with 45% of the votes, and 14% of the votes did not result in seats. That doesn't sound like an improvement to me. (Compared to the Netherlands - still beter than FPTP systems.)
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Voting for conservatives makes planes fall out of the fucking sky
do they want planes falling out of the fucking sky because that's how they get planes falling out of the fucking sky
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I mean, CDU/CSU and SPD have a majority with 45% of the votes, and 14% of the votes did not result in seats. That doesn't sound like an improvement to me. (Compared to the Netherlands - still beter than FPTP systems.)
I disagree, it's definitely an improvement to the infinite amount of parties we have.
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I disagree, it's definitely an improvement to the infinite amount of parties we have.
I mean, you could just not vote for the fringe parties then?
(Oh, you already don't do that? So it's other people's votes you want to cancel? See what I mean - arguing for a threshold is essentially arguing for less democracy.)
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I mean, you could just not vote for the fringe parties then?
(Oh, you already don't do that? So it's other people's votes you want to cancel? See what I mean - arguing for a threshold is essentially arguing for less democracy.)
It's not about cancelling anyone. It's about not having to wait 200-300 days to get a new government after every election.
I have often voted for very small parties and they never make it into the coalition. I really wouldn't mind if they didn't make it into Parliament either.
It's not like the BSW or FDP voters really lost that much - their parties would be doomed to be opposition anyway. Their voters knew that was a likely outcome based on the polls. And next election they might reach the threshold.
But the country as a whole gains efficiency.
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Can someone please explain this for a non-German. I know there was a large concern with the AfD, but what do the results mean so far?
It's not as bad as some polls suggested, but it's pretty fucking bad.
There are few options for coalition-building that don't involve the far-right AfD as the other parties have promised. Meanwhile the far-right and conservative right hold an absolute majority between them, giving them options to approve a lot of heinous shit as they've shown they are willing to do in line with their xenophobic rhetoric.
The upsides are that the Left successfully reinvented their profile and made major gains after being pronounced dead (for the 8th time), the Greens didn't lose as much as the anti-woke anti-education narratives suggested, and the neoliberals are fully out after torpedoing their own government coalition.
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The CDU always has contained everything from centre-left to far-right, as long it's compatible with democracy. Their right wing is about en par with Reagan, their left wing with, dunno, Harris, status quo liberals in general. They're not about to abolish public healthcare, gutting unemployment benefits OTOH is up their alley. Social conservatism wise they tend to brake a lot, but aren't prone to be regressive, like wanting to roll back gay rights or something. Or, differently put, they won't be any more conservative the EKD which is absolutely fine with reverends having gay sex in the vicarage as long as it's monogamous.
Socially they absolutely aim to turn back time. They've promised to revoke gender self-identification and marijuana legalization for instance, and they're all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric. Regardless of how much they may struggle to come up with excuses to legitimize it, this is what resonates with the people they're courting right now - voters that abandoned them for AfD or at least are considering it.
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Socially they absolutely aim to turn back time. They've promised to revoke gender self-identification and marijuana legalization for instance, and they're all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric. Regardless of how much they may struggle to come up with excuses to legitimize it, this is what resonates with the people they're courting right now - voters that abandoned them for AfD or at least are considering it.
They’ve promised to revoke gender self-identification
...no. And their opposition to the law wasn't transphobic (in the strict sense) in the first place but regarded abuse potential, which is why the law that got passed says that name changes are transmitted to police etc. so they can figure out whether someone's trying to escape justice that way. Queer community of course didn't like that but it did insulate the whole thing against attacks from the right.
and marijuana legalization for instance
They won't. Also they'd fail before the constitutional court as outlawing it back then was not scrutinised by the same standards the constitutional court would apply now. Fixing it, OTOH, forget it.
and they’re all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric
Hell they aren't because SMEs aren't. Merz picked that up in a (stupid) attempt to get AfD votes. The CDU is captured by lobby interests and the lobby wants immigrant workers. Loudly. Vocally. The whole economy of the whole east is up in arms about lacking workers and the AfD scaring away those they could get. They're going to bury the topic as quickly as they can. That Netanjahu invitation might actually be exactly that: That's giving the Springer press opportunity to forget about the whole xenophobia thing and instead focus on purported anti-semitism on the left. Because, *checks notes*, executing international arrest warrants is antisemitic. Expect candlelight vigils with pictures of sniped children, I'm confident Die Linke knows how to play that one, this isn't about preventing the visit at all costs but exposing bigotry on the right. Did I already mention that Merz sucks at strategy?
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It's not about cancelling anyone. It's about not having to wait 200-300 days to get a new government after every election.
I have often voted for very small parties and they never make it into the coalition. I really wouldn't mind if they didn't make it into Parliament either.
It's not like the BSW or FDP voters really lost that much - their parties would be doomed to be opposition anyway. Their voters knew that was a likely outcome based on the polls. And next election they might reach the threshold.
But the country as a whole gains efficiency.
The question then is: why did you vote for those very small parties? Why not just vote VVD? Then you're basically sure that they'll make the coalition, and your vote contributes to a nice and quick coalition process.
(That said, I also strongly disagree that being in opposition means you can't achieve anything. Look at the PVV, and how much they were able to make the other parties when they weren't even part of the government. Looks at what Union is planning to do now because of AfD, without AfD having to be part of the coalition.)
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CDU was always center-right and SPD center-left. In the last years SPD slowly drifted to center. Some still consider them center-left.
You should check on the definition of extremist. The AfD ist far-right, yes, but not extremist (yet).
Wir sollten eine SA gründen und aufräumen!“ – Andreas Geithe, AfD
We should form an SA and clean up!’ - Andreas Geithe, AfD
Immerhin haben wir jetzt so viele Ausländer im Land, dass sich ein Holocaust mal wieder lohnen würde.“ – Chatprotokoll Marcel Grauf
After all, we now have so many foreigners in the country that a Holocaust would be worthwhile again.’ - Chat protocol Marcel Grauf
Ich würde niemanden verurteilen, der ein bewohntes Asylantenheim anzündet. Ich würde mir so sehr einen Bürgerkrieg von Millionen Toten - Frauen, Kindern, mir egal - wünschen, Hauptsache es geht los. Insbesondere würde ich laut lachen, wenn so etwas auf der Gegendemo passieren würde. Tote, Verkrüppelte, es wäre so schön. Ich will auf Leichen pissen und auf Gräbern tanzen. Sieg Heil!“ (Marcel Grauf, AfD)
Marcel Grauf ist Mitarbeiter der AfD-Abgeordneten Christina Baum und dem AfD-Politiker Heiner Merz.I wouldn't condemn anyone who sets fire to an inhabited asylum centre. I would so much like to see a civil war of millions of dead - women, children, I don't care - the main thing is that it starts. I would especially laugh out loud if something like that happened at the counter-demonstration. Dead people, crippled people, it would be so nice. I want to piss on corpses and dance on graves. Sieg Heil!’ (Marcel Grauf, AfD)
Marcel Grauf is an employee of AfD MP Christina Baum and AfD politician Heiner Merz.
Abschiebung der Antifa nach Buchenwald“ – Mirko Welsch, AfD
Mirko Welsch war der Bundessprecher der Homosexuellen in der AfDDeportation of the Antifa to Buchenwald’ - Mirko Welsch, AfD
Mirko Welsch was the federal spokesperson for homosexuals in the AfDEs ist richtig, Menschen mit schwarzer Hautfarbe auch weiterhin N**** zu nennen.“ –Thomas Seitz, AfD
It is right to continue calling people with black skin colour N****.’ -Thomas Seitz, AfD
Nothing to see here folks. Defenitly NOT an extremist political party. Move along now!!!
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The shit neo-Nazi filled AfD gained a lot of ground. WTF.
Right wing nazi parties are gaining traction all around Europe. Social media has given them a platform where they can make small problems look like big problems. Most of the people voting for them only look at 1 agenda item, which is immigration. Besides that they know jack shit about what these parties are about. If you look at the agenda items, it's all tailored for the elite.
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Germany will probably get a centrist-right (CDU/CSU) government with a centrist-left junior partner (SPD).
Centrist-right is far left in US terms.I expect stagnancy in German politics for the next 4 years. -_-
So basically as if Democrats won? then why are people so upset?
I don't think I understand
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So basically as if Democrats won? then why are people so upset?
I don't think I understand
Because this kind of coalition was the definition of stale, boring politics in the past. No innovations, mainly slight adjustments here and there.
During the last time that coalition said something like "Das Internet ist für uns alle Neuland." which means something along the line of "The internet is frontier land for all of us." Within seconds #Neuland (frontier land) became the hash tag for a shitstorm that still lasts to this day - after 12 (!) years.
The internet was already established and well in use everywhere for ~20 years. And now the politicians suddenly recognized a new form of communication. If it wasn't so funny I would have cried.That's why everyone is disappointed. Can't wait to hear what stupid shit this goverment will tell us. 🥱
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Wir sollten eine SA gründen und aufräumen!“ – Andreas Geithe, AfD
We should form an SA and clean up!’ - Andreas Geithe, AfD
Immerhin haben wir jetzt so viele Ausländer im Land, dass sich ein Holocaust mal wieder lohnen würde.“ – Chatprotokoll Marcel Grauf
After all, we now have so many foreigners in the country that a Holocaust would be worthwhile again.’ - Chat protocol Marcel Grauf
Ich würde niemanden verurteilen, der ein bewohntes Asylantenheim anzündet. Ich würde mir so sehr einen Bürgerkrieg von Millionen Toten - Frauen, Kindern, mir egal - wünschen, Hauptsache es geht los. Insbesondere würde ich laut lachen, wenn so etwas auf der Gegendemo passieren würde. Tote, Verkrüppelte, es wäre so schön. Ich will auf Leichen pissen und auf Gräbern tanzen. Sieg Heil!“ (Marcel Grauf, AfD)
Marcel Grauf ist Mitarbeiter der AfD-Abgeordneten Christina Baum und dem AfD-Politiker Heiner Merz.I wouldn't condemn anyone who sets fire to an inhabited asylum centre. I would so much like to see a civil war of millions of dead - women, children, I don't care - the main thing is that it starts. I would especially laugh out loud if something like that happened at the counter-demonstration. Dead people, crippled people, it would be so nice. I want to piss on corpses and dance on graves. Sieg Heil!’ (Marcel Grauf, AfD)
Marcel Grauf is an employee of AfD MP Christina Baum and AfD politician Heiner Merz.
Abschiebung der Antifa nach Buchenwald“ – Mirko Welsch, AfD
Mirko Welsch war der Bundessprecher der Homosexuellen in der AfDDeportation of the Antifa to Buchenwald’ - Mirko Welsch, AfD
Mirko Welsch was the federal spokesperson for homosexuals in the AfDEs ist richtig, Menschen mit schwarzer Hautfarbe auch weiterhin N**** zu nennen.“ –Thomas Seitz, AfD
It is right to continue calling people with black skin colour N****.’ -Thomas Seitz, AfD
Nothing to see here folks. Defenitly NOT an extremist political party. Move along now!!!
It would be extremist if they do that instead of just telling what they would like to do. Trump tells us he wants to annex Canada and Greenland. Does that make him an extremist too?
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So basically as if Democrats won? then why are people so upset?
I don't think I understand
No, more like if (somehow) George Bush and Trump ran against each other and Bush won.
Its far from a great result but its not as bad as it could've been and, from a European standpoint, it means there's strong opposition to Trump and strong support for Ukraine.
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Right wing nazi parties are gaining traction all around Europe. Social media has given them a platform where they can make small problems look like big problems. Most of the people voting for them only look at 1 agenda item, which is immigration. Besides that they know jack shit about what these parties are about. If you look at the agenda items, it's all tailored for the elite.
We also got Russia and the US weaponizing social media to support far-right parties. The EU needs to get their shit together.
