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  3. I believe in ghosts and aliens because of statistics. What do you think?

I believe in ghosts and aliens because of statistics. What do you think?

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  • koboldcoterie@pawb.socialK [email protected]

    You're horribly mis-using statistics and making claims that are not the logical conclusion.

    We know that intelligent life exists, and that one specific, if very rare, set of circumstances can definitively bring it about. We know there are other planets that are similarly capable of supporting life. We have evidence - irrefutable, hard evidence - that such planets can, and do exist, because we live on one.

    You have far worse evidence of ghosts or aliens. Having photographic proof of either is a highly sought after thing, that comes with notoriety and in some cases fame or money. Statistically, wouldn't you say it's more likely that, given the incentive to do so, the people claiming to produce such evidence are lying to reap the benefits? If not, again, why don't we have actual, clear, indisputable pictures? Are you telling me that these phenomenon have been occurring throughout recorded history, but there's not one single high quality picture? How could that be? Surely if you have enough people taking pictures, one of them by sheer chance should come out clear.

    Similarly, how is it that modern astronomical or surveillance equipment hasn't captured evidence of them? Why are we relying on shaky polaroids taken by random people? You're cherry picking evidence that you feel has the highest likelihood of being true while discounting all of the evidence against it being true.

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    wrote on last edited by
    #25

    Full disclosure, I'm not claiming the aliens or ghosts to be real, I am affirming my belief due to the improbability of all reports being claimed false.

    People will use the incentive to make hoaxes for fame and money. This adds to the 99%.

    People have reported high quality pictures. Which begs the question of whether it is real or fake. If fake, it adds to the 99%. If real, it adds to the 1%.

    Modern astronomical and surveillance have captured evidence of them. Which begs the question of whether it is real or fake. If fake, it adds to the 99%. If real, it adds to the 1%.

    We are not relying on shaky polaroid pictures. And the pictures must disproportionately be seemingly random since they're difficult phenomenon to capture.

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    • R [email protected]

      Yes, I do believe aliens and ghosts can be confirmed for a greater extent than God.

      The difference being that we can use provided recordings, sightings, and reports (as false as many of them may be) to take a lead into discovering more about these phenomena. Using physical instruments to deduce, observe, and hypothesize we can have greater confidence in proof.
      In terms of God, from what I have seen, there is no way to deduce and observe using physical instruments.

      Evidence in God is entirely localized and biased. God, assuming a Judeo-Christian flavor, only accounts for approximately 30% of all belief in the world, which is centralized into more popular locations such as the US, UK, China, and Europe. Other locations may have a more diverse religious background, in which case, a God may be believed in.
      Evidence in aliens and ghosts are not limited to location. It is decentralized.

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      wrote on last edited by
      #26

      Fair enough. I’m not going to, nor do I want to, dissuade you from continuing your search and believing what you believe, just wanted to get a better understanding on how you reason about these things. And initially I had hoped also to spark some questions and maybe second thoughts on your part.

      For the record, I’m not entirely following your chain of thought here, and I do not believe as you believe, nor do I really see the the distinction you posed just now, but who knows, maybe I’m wrong and it turns out you’re right.

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      • R [email protected]

        When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as "the government says it is real" or "this video explains it all".
        I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they're trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.

        On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it's a lead to the truth.

        ada@lemmy.blahaj.zoneA This user is from outside of this forum
        ada@lemmy.blahaj.zoneA This user is from outside of this forum
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        wrote on last edited by
        #27

        Using this approach, everything that can't be disproven must exist

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        • R [email protected]

          When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as "the government says it is real" or "this video explains it all".
          I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they're trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.

          On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it's a lead to the truth.

          lettuceeatlettuce@lemmy.mlL This user is from outside of this forum
          lettuceeatlettuce@lemmy.mlL This user is from outside of this forum
          [email protected]
          wrote on last edited by
          #28

          Dude, if you wanna believe in ghosts and aliens, just say you think they are real because vibes.

          Don't try to justify it with a clunky, misunderstood, and incorrect usage of "statistics."

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          • R [email protected]

            When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as "the government says it is real" or "this video explains it all".
            I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they're trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.

            On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it's a lead to the truth.

            E This user is from outside of this forum
            E This user is from outside of this forum
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            wrote on last edited by
            #29

            Flies eat poop, and theres a lot of them. Can't all be wrong. Even if 1% of them are right to do so, you should eat poop.

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            • koboldcoterie@pawb.socialK [email protected]

              Thing about Nessy is that it is localized. It started in an area in Scotland. Assuming Nessy was a worldwide phenomenon where sightings are found more than a couple of times a month, it’d be different.

              Nessy is purported to be a single creature living in a single Loch in Scotland; why would there be sightings elsewhere in the world? That's like saying "The Eiffel Tower is only ever sighted in Paris, isn't that suspicious?"

              Given the relatively small number of visitors to Loch Ness vs. the number of people in the world with cameras, I'd argue that the sightings per visitor are at a significantly higher rate than UFO or ghost sightings.

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              wrote on last edited by
              #30

              I never claimed that Nessy was a worldwide phenomenon, it was a hypothetical scenario to express a point.

              If the scenario you've describing were to be true, then it'd be something more major to discuss than ghosts or aliens as it would provide the potential for groundbreaking discoveries. I don't expect you to continue vouching for for Nessy and its research potential since it'd be off topic, however.

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              • ada@lemmy.blahaj.zoneA [email protected]

                Using this approach, everything that can't be disproven must exist

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                wrote on last edited by
                #31

                Not by a long shot.

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                • O [email protected]

                  Fair enough. I’m not going to, nor do I want to, dissuade you from continuing your search and believing what you believe, just wanted to get a better understanding on how you reason about these things. And initially I had hoped also to spark some questions and maybe second thoughts on your part.

                  For the record, I’m not entirely following your chain of thought here, and I do not believe as you believe, nor do I really see the the distinction you posed just now, but who knows, maybe I’m wrong and it turns out you’re right.

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                  wrote on last edited by
                  #32

                  I appreciate the honesty. I can see how my post got so many downvotes. I definitely misused the term "statistics" by not inferring a casual and metaphorical tone.

                  No, I don't believe that my reasoning is scientifically sound. I don't claim that my observation is the final truth. I claim that my belief in such things are affirmed (albeit faintly) through the improbability that all unintentional reports and encounters all false.

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                  • R [email protected]

                    When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as "the government says it is real" or "this video explains it all".
                    I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they're trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.

                    On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it's a lead to the truth.

                    C This user is from outside of this forum
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                    wrote on last edited by
                    #33

                    Ghosts don’t even make sense scientifically. There has not been a single bit of evidence because Videos and photos on their own never proof anything. Aliens on the other hand are just lifeforms on other planets. We ourselves are proof that life exists so the probability of more is not 0. We don’t need sketchy photos as proof for that and they will probably never visit us anyways.

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                    • R [email protected]

                      When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as "the government says it is real" or "this video explains it all".
                      I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they're trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.

                      On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it's a lead to the truth.

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                      wrote on last edited by
                      #34

                      They're two very different things. One is supernatural one is simply unknown.

                      Statistically, yes, life on other planets probably exists in some form as there's just so many. But whether they've contacted, visited or even known about us - I don't think so. Conspiracists will think secrets are being hidden but that's what makes them feel important.

                      Ghosts - nah. There's no proof beyond human imagination.

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                      • R [email protected]

                        When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as "the government says it is real" or "this video explains it all".
                        I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they're trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.

                        On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it's a lead to the truth.

                        S This user is from outside of this forum
                        S This user is from outside of this forum
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                        wrote on last edited by
                        #35

                        You don't understand statistics at all.

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                        • R [email protected]

                          I might be confusing your inverse response.

                          To lay it out, in my head:
                          False 99:1 Real, therefore there is a solid sighting worth taking a lead.
                          Real 99:1 False, therefore the truth is evident.

                          Assuming you imply that I take an inverse bias, the ratios still stand.

                          S This user is from outside of this forum
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                          wrote on last edited by
                          #36

                          How high are you right meow?

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                          • R [email protected]

                            When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as "the government says it is real" or "this video explains it all".
                            I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they're trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.

                            On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it's a lead to the truth.

                            N This user is from outside of this forum
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                            wrote on last edited by
                            #37

                            I won't dispute your claim, as your argument is flawed from the beginning.

                            But answer me this: What's the expiration date on ghosts? There has to be one, because otherwise there would be a lot more ghosts from any and all eras.

                            And that includes Neolithic era ghosts.

                            And what about the Neanderthals? And dinosaurs? Why do we never hear of ghosts from other species?

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                            • R [email protected]

                              When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as "the government says it is real" or "this video explains it all".
                              I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they're trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.

                              On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it's a lead to the truth.

                              mothra@mander.xyzM This user is from outside of this forum
                              mothra@mander.xyzM This user is from outside of this forum
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                              wrote on last edited by
                              #38

                              Then all the gods must be real too according to your statistics. Now tell me, which is the right one to follow? I better pick a side soon

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                              • R [email protected]

                                In terms of other spooks and gooks, like the Lochness monster, those are not being reproduced on the daily from decentralized sources.

                                In the case for the Lochness monster, it's localized to a certain location and mostly within a certain period of time. Not much weak proof or statistical evidence is being produced to be considered an anomaly worth believing in.

                                Specifically in terms of ghosts and aliens, it has been known for ages, inscribed into historical texts, of which were inscribed from different eras of human history completely decentralized via continents, that we can relate certain experiences to -- eg, ghostly and alien experiences. On the contrary, there are historical texts of fairies, unicorns, and leprechauns, but no modern or excessive amounts of proof or statistical anomalies to consider them worth believing in.

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                                wrote on last edited by
                                #39

                                People used to write that frogs were spontaneously born from mud. Just because a belief is written down or etched in stone doesn't make it true or real.

                                As for supernatural stuff you have to realize that before scientists discovered things like we aren't the center of the solar system, people were ignorant of physics and astronomy, and attributed everything to some supernatural god or alien force. We have moved past the idea of a guy in a chariot toeing planets across the night sky.

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                                • R [email protected]

                                  Full disclosure, I'm not claiming the aliens or ghosts to be real, I am affirming my belief due to the improbability of all reports being claimed false.

                                  People will use the incentive to make hoaxes for fame and money. This adds to the 99%.

                                  People have reported high quality pictures. Which begs the question of whether it is real or fake. If fake, it adds to the 99%. If real, it adds to the 1%.

                                  Modern astronomical and surveillance have captured evidence of them. Which begs the question of whether it is real or fake. If fake, it adds to the 99%. If real, it adds to the 1%.

                                  We are not relying on shaky polaroid pictures. And the pictures must disproportionately be seemingly random since they're difficult phenomenon to capture.

                                  B This user is from outside of this forum
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                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #40

                                  Any alien photos of a coloured shaped were already disproved by an optic expert. Just ike you get sunflare in a regular camera lens as hexagons, you get triangle flare in military recording lenses.

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                                  • mothra@mander.xyzM [email protected]

                                    Then all the gods must be real too according to your statistics. Now tell me, which is the right one to follow? I better pick a side soon

                                    M This user is from outside of this forum
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                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #41

                                    No no no, with gods, you can kind of shop around, most of them won't mind much, at least not in the 'send a lightning bolt down to fry [email protected]' kind of way. Essentially, gods need people to believe in them (so they can exist), and people need someone to blame. Offler, the crocodile-headed god, is quite popular, as is Blind Io, chief of the gods.

                                    I work in IT, so in my headcannon, I pray to the gods of DNS. Put into a classical context, I imagine this is Hermes from Greek mythology (messenger of the gods), Thoth from Egyption mythology, etc.

                                    Completely honestly though - I think faith is similar to energy, in the 'conservation of energy' type of way. So the total amount of faith humanity holds has stayed the same, but instead of praying to gods, we now have faith in things like... Ryzen processors. DNS. Manual transmissions. Black coffee. Subaru. These are just some of the things I have faith in, if you asked my daughter, the answers would probably be Peppa Pig, mom & dad, Everest the Paw Patrol character, a blue baloon, cheesecake is best cake, her stuffed animal squid, etc. Both answers are completely valid 🙂

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                                    • davel@lemmy.mlD [email protected]

                                      You could really use a basic philosophy and logic education. Like one or two community college 100-level classes on critical thinking.

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                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #42

                                      Any free/open online crash courses on it?

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                                      • R [email protected]

                                        When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as "the government says it is real" or "this video explains it all".
                                        I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they're trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.

                                        On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it's a lead to the truth.

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                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #43

                                        Your "statistics" are fantasy numbers, not statistics. And statistics or probabilities, no matter how low or high, are not proof.

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                                        • R [email protected]

                                          When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as "the government says it is real" or "this video explains it all".
                                          I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they're trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.

                                          On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it's a lead to the truth.

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                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #44

                                          By this logic, if I post 10000 videos claiming 2+2=5, it becomes true by 'statistics'?
                                          To answer your question though, statistics are not predetermined independently from the truth. Truth is the basis and the number of claims for any statement does not change that.
                                          There are many examples from the past, like witches, werewolves, vampires, giants, ... People used to claim their existence but not anymore. By your logic they must have existed back then but suddenly they dont anymore?
                                          Also how come ghosts and aliens exist almost exclusively in the US? There are almost no reports in any other country.

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