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Great analogy

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there's still a whole software-side bubble to contend with

They're ultimately linked together in some ways (not all). OpenAI has already been losing money on every GPT subscription that they charge a premium for because they had the best product, now that premium must evaporate because there are equivalent AI products on the market that are much cheaper. This will shake things up on the software side too. They probably need more hype to stay afloat

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Quick, wedge crypto in there somehow! That should buy us at least two more rounds of investment.

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There is no bubble. You're confusing gpt with ai

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The software side bubble should take a hit here because:

Trained model made available for download and offline execution, versus locking it behind a subscription friendly cloud only access. Not the first, but it is more famous.
It came from an unexpected organization, which throws a wrench in the assumption that one of the few known entities would "win it".

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…that is, this isn’t yet the end of the AI bubble.

The "bubble" in AI is predicated on proprietary software that's been oversold and underdelivered.

If I can outrun OpenAI's super secret algorithm with 1/100th the physical resources, the $13B Microsoft handed Sam Altman's company starts looking like burned capital.

And the way this blows up the reputation of AI hype-artists makes it harder for investors to be induced to send US firms money. Why not contract with Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence directly, rather than ask OpenAI to adopt a model that's better than anything they've produced to date?

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I really think GenAI is comparable to the internet in terms of what it will allow mankind in a couple of decades.

Lots of people thought the internet was a fad and saw no future for it ...

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I don't know. In a lot of usecase AI is kinda crap, but there's certain usecase where it's really good. Honestly I don't think people are giving enough thought to it's utility in early-middle stages of creative works where an img2img model can take the basic composition from the artist, render it then the artist can go in and modify and perfect it for the final product. Also video games that use generative AI are going to be insane in about 10-15 years. Imagine an open world game where it generates building interiors and NPCs as you interact with them, even tying the stuff the NPCs say into the buildings they're in, like an old sailer living in a house with lots of pictures of boats and boat models, or the warrior having tons of books about battle and decorative weapons everywhere all in throw away structures that would have previously been closed set dressing. Maybe they'll even find sane ways to create quests on the fly that don't feel overly cookie-cutter? Life changing? Of course not, but definitely a cool technology with a lot of potential

Also realistically I don't think there's going to be long term use for AI models that need a quarter of a datacenter just to run, and they'll all get tuned down to what can run directly on a phone efficiently. Maybe we'll see some new accelerators become common place maybe we won't.

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Sure but you had the .com bubble but it was still useful. Same as AI in a big bubble right now doesn't mean it won't be useful.

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Lots of techies loved the internet, built it, and were all excited. Lots of normies didn't see the point.

With AI it's pretty much the other way around: CEOs saying "we don't need programmers, any more", while people who understand the tech roll their eyes.

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I believe programming languages will become obsolete. You'll still need professionals that will be experts in leading the machines but not nearly as hands on as presently. The same for a lot of professions that exist currently.

I like to compare GenAI to the assembly line when it was created, but instead of repetitive menial tasks, it's repetitive mental tasks that it improves/performs.

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Oh yes, there definitely is a bubble, but I don't believe that means the tech is worthless, not even close to worthless.

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Oh great you're one of them. Look I can't magically infuse tech literacy into you, you'll have to learn to program and, crucially, understand how much about programming is not about giving computers instructions.

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Hey, Trump already did! Twice...

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Let's talk in five years. There's no point in discussing this right now. You're set on what you believe you know and I'm set on what I believe I know.

And, piece of advice, don't assume others lack tech literacy because they don't agree with you, it just makes you look like a brat that can't discuss things maturely and invites the other part to be a prick as well.

Especially because programming is quite fucking literally giving computers instructions, despite what you believe keyboard monkeys do. You wanker!

What? You think "developers" are some kind on mythical beings that possess the mystical ability of speaking to the machines in cryptic tongues?

They're a dime a dozen, the large majority of "developers" are just cannon fodder that are not worth what they think they are.

Ironically, the real good ones probably brought about their demise.

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That's not the way it works. And I'm not even against that.

It sill won't work this way a few years later.

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I'm not talking about this being a snap transition. It will take several years but I do think this tech will evolve in that direction.

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Especially because programming is quite fucking literally giving computers instructions, despite what you believe keyboard monkeys do. You wanker!

What? You think “developers” are some kind on mythical beings that possess the mystical ability of speaking to the machines in cryptic tongues?

First off, you're contradicting yourself: Is programming about "giving instructions in cryptic languages", or not?

Then, no: Developers are mythical beings who possess the magical ability of turning vague gesturing full of internal contradictions, wishful thinking, up to right-out psychotic nonsense dreamt up by some random coke-head in a suit, into hard specifications suitable to then go into algorithm selection and finally into code. Typing shit is the easy part.

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You must be a programmer. Can't understand shit if what you're told to do and then blame the client for "not knowing how it works". Typical. Stereotypical even!

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Shovel vendors scrambling for solid ground as prospectors start to understand geology.