Russian politician honestly explains the goals of the Ukraine war, admits any peace deal will only be temporary
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A lot of people in the West reflexively don't want to admit this, but this the view of the overwhelming majority of the russian population. They are committed and genuine genocidal imperialists.
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I believe this is the issue: if there were a way for Ukraine to genuinely believe that Russia would not attack them again, they might accept certain territorial losses—in fact, they might have accepted them long ago. But no one believes that a Russia that wins in Donbas would stop there and not feel emboldened to push for more. Only a Russia that perceives this as a painful defeat might refrain from coming back for more.
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I could plausibly see a meaningful defensive agreement working for Ukraine too. I believe we should back Ukraine to the hilt for as long as they want to fight, but if we aren't going to send in troops ourselves then when and how to negotiate is not for us to decide
It would have to be sonthing other than NATO thanks to the current American administration, but I do think that an EU + UK agreement with sufficiently strong language - stronger than NATO's article 5 and the EU's mutual defence article, an actual requirement to actively deploy the military to the front - would be deterrrent enough to for Russia
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EU accession would cover it. The mutual defence part is fairly ironclad - "obligation" and "by all the means in their power". Definitely less wishy-washy than article 5 IMO.
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Fair point regarding the mutual defence clause actually, I had misremembered it as being significantly more vague. I'd be in favour of welcoming Ukraine into the EU, although as a Brit it would provoke a significant degree of envy in me
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Yeah, there’s nothing to admit here. The inherent chauvinism apparent in statements like yours should repel everybody with a little bit of decency.
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It is, as usual, a bit more complicated than that. Of course there are hard-boiled imperialists there, as anywhere. But it is unlikely that even Putin himself is one, he just has his own agenda.
Russians are a nation with too dark a history in the last couple centuries (and of course before). They were oppressed by their own, killed by their many neighbours in millions, and the memory of this lives deep in them. The major driver for many of them is to avoid harm first of all, powered with fear of their own government and instilled fear of "foreign malign forces" (definition changes by the day, rather easily, driven by propaganda). It is not safe to be against the war, so naturally the majority goes with the flow.
Do they want to actually conquer neighbours? In a way, there is a sense of pride in belonging to the strongest gang in the hood. As in, it is better to be a part of said gang than be chased by it.
Source: am russian-born, with a lot of contacts in the country.
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The 2014 events were driven by the really nasty people, proper "russian jihadists", if you like. Cut-throats armed by Russia dealt a lot of damage in Eastern Ukraine. Most of them now are either dead or in prison for being too unpalatable for their own. Borodai is one of the few survivors, but he still retains the spirit.
Not sure if what he says is the real set of ideas behind all the war drama.
Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that the rest of Duma/government are fluffy kittens, just that he is an extremist not necessarily reflective of the majority even in Duma.
Or maybe I am still too optimistic, after all these years.
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Ah c'mon back in neighbour. I really hope you do soon.
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He should avoid being near windows, and also eating or drinking.
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Sense of belonging? This is exactly what I am mean by genocidal imperialism being universal among russians.
You (and other russians) fundamentally do not believe in self determination and will always find excuses to justify violence, occupations, torture and ethnic cleanings. The russians are even OK with being put down and abused by their own regime as long there is imperial conquest.
I don't buy the "dark history" narrative. There is nothing inherent (in a physical sense) about russians that leads to degeneracy and debauchery. It's all the choices they make. The somewhat peaceful breakup of the USSR was a unique opportunity for russians and we can see the choices they made.
Source: I've lived in russia for many years and I speak fluent russian. I've also lived in North America, Asia and Europe and speak other languages.
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No chauvinism. These are facts. And you know this. There are even russians who agree with what I am saying, not because they lack decency, but because they actually want their society to change.
Playing into russian victimhood narratives, treating them like children and coddling their worst instincts is not doing russians any favour.
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Kinda weird that you assume that I know, and you know, what the overwhelming majority of Russians is thinking. I mean, I can make a general assumption, that obviously, they are no revolutionaries. They go to work every day. They have children they have to take care of. They have a pretty similar life to ours and therefore don’t want trouble upending their lives for the worse. If the government has imperial ambitions, it usually collides with people’s interests.
I can say that without knowing one Russian.Now I have a little bit of an…advantage? That is, I do know many Russians and yeah, none of them has genocidal tendencies. They also don’t claim that it is one of their national traits. National victimhood is just pretty fashionable inside nationalist governments. It is not limited to Russia, too.
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Usually sweeping generalizations about an entire ethnic group are spurious at best.
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So do you believe the propaganda they are being fed is going to push that Ukraine needs to be taken back or left to their own permanent sovereignty? In this day and age we have to realize that in a authoritarian government led country with an oligarchy, that their propoganda is what the general population is going to go with. When it comes to civil war or war on their neighbors, and they have already gone to war with their neighbors... Its hard to believe round 2 they won't choose war with their neighbors as well. Animosity only grows for the neighbors when the military members come back and spread stories.
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Why do you think this is a sweeping generalisation?
This is backed by a variety of research (both quantitative and qualitative, with different methodologies, some even run by opposition-minded russians). Not to mention historical reality since the breakup of the USSR. You do realize that russia is occupying 3 independent countries and is openly pursuing a policy of destruction of national identity?
Keep in mind that things like "preference falsification" can actually be measured and there is a wide variety of research that specifically estimates preference falsifiaction (with some rather interesting results). So don't play dumb with the "they are all afraid to say the truth!1!!" and "all research is wrong if it doesn't portray russian society in a good light."
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Life isn't a Star Wars movie. Going to work everyday and taking care of your children is not incompatible with being a genocidal imperialist. You can even not want any invasion to impact your directly and still be a genocidal imperialist.
So what that the russians you know aren't genocidal imperialists? All the russians I speak to aren't genocidal imperialists either, what are you trying to say? The reason why I said you know this and you're just playing is because of these sort of arguments.
"We don't know anything and even if we do it is all wrong unless it portrays russians as innocent children and who should never take responsibility for anything."
You almost certainly know that all research (literally from any source, using any methodology, even multi-decade longitudinal research) shows that anything between a strong majority to an overwhelming majority of russians support genocidal imperialism.
And unlike you, I've actually lived in russia for many years and I speak fluent russian (and yet I constantly had to deal with racism by the russians because I of a mixed ethnicity).
So spare me your fake humanism. It's just more convenient for your to white wash their support for genocidal imperialism.
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Your assumptions about me are just as ludicrous as the ones about Russians.
Goodbye
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57 upvotes and zero downvotes.
based.
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Unfortunately, these are not assumptions, but factual results of a very broad range of research, sometimes conducted over decades.
You on the hand assume that I am just shitposting or "spreading hate against the innocent". That's why I brought up the fake humanism. You can't even imagine the possibility that I more than happy to read critiques and alternative viewpoints on the research I am alluding to. The problem being is that none of it is convincing and similar to your arguments it devolves into "trust me bro!" and "all research is wrong unless it aligns with my opinion of russian society". Do you want some examples?
If you knew what you were talking about and weren't engaging in fake humanism, you would have had an argument that goes beyond "your views are ludicrous!1!1!!".
But you don't.
