Trump gave Europe three weeks to sign off on Ukraine "surrender": MEP
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And yet it would've been far better to choose the slow loss over the immediate loss
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It's fine if you think that.
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Some notes:
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this is not confirmed, but seems credible enough to speculate about
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regardless of veracity, European defense readiness needs a big boost, and people are working on the instruments that would allow giving that boost
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another source says that Trump is planning cuts in the US armed forces, to the tune of 8% per year [sources that add "for multiple years" remain hearsay for me]
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around January 20, I saw a table circulating on social media, describing Trump's intended cuts, and that table did drop about 21 brigades and paused the development of various capabilities (edit: found it)
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so apparently, the Trump administration intends to lower its defense readiness no matter what, believing it has too much
On this background, not much point negotiating with him. He is framing as an ultimatum what he intends to do anyway. No point getting delayed either.
Just get the framework agreed upon, and quickly start supplying Ukraine with fresh stuff. Ukrainians aren't newbies, for now they have accumulated some small reserves (they knew what to expect under Trump, and Biden's administration pushed the last remains of its assistance out like there was no tomorrow)... but arrival of European assistance must start rapidly increasing within a window of 2..3 months.
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To be fair, Mika Aaltola is known in Finland as a noted populist and doomsayer that has a flair for the dramatic. His foreign policy predictions have also been pretty much all wrong since before the start of war in Ukraine.
I'd take anything he says or leaks with a big spoon of salt.
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Pretty sure Poland is already on course to exceed 5%.
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Coming soon: "Fuck you for your service."
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Do it! I dare you! Fuck of from europe! Take all your companies with you!
Dont sell us weapons anymore!Democracie is none negotiatable and we dont negotiate with terrorist acomplices!
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Tell me why and how russia is winning? Im truely interested
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Even if we were to agree to those demands, there is no garantie they would actually help in defense of us!
We had to defend them when they called articel 5 but wont do the same for us!
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Oh they are still here?
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Go to deepstatemap.live, observe and click on few icons to verify a deep pro-Ukrainian bias. Click on the calendar icon, select a random date from the past year. Click play button. Observe constant and relentless advancement from the red areas and the simultaneous shrinking of the blue.
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Sanctions have largely failed. From personal experience in Russia, I can tell you, the people don't feel like their country is at war. Business is as usual, the goods are still moving, the oil is flowing. The prices do rise quite quick, but it's not like they don't any other time. If anything, it only put a roadblock to opposing views for the people who can't be too arsed to buy a VPN subscription.
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I've been saying this all the time, but without troops from other countries, Ukraine cannot possibly hold the lines, nevermind fighting back. Russia has 3.5x more population and 9x bigger economy before the war broke out. No amount of aid is going to turn one Ukrainian into four. It's a simple math, and the two above points show exactly that. Anyone who tells that Russia is somehow losing is straight up lying to feed people what they want to hear.
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Id say having to revert to donkeys and 30+ year old civilian shitboxes is losing for the "2nd greatest army".
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I really do hope the eu doesn't even negotiate with terrorists.
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Point is they wouldn't let it happen. They'd stop it by throwing Trump and co under the bus and take their money and power to the next best thing. Which would likely be backing a stupid moderate Democrat and getting things "back to normal" as fast as possible
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The reason for this happening now is that Russia is on the verge of collapse and Putin has turned the screws on trump. If things don't go his way the pee tape will leak
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A lot of people don't vote as a protest. Most stupid shit I ever heard and I instantly lose respect for anyone that doesn't at least go spoil their ballot.
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I really hope the rest of the world leaders keep this at the forefront of their mind: Trump doesn't keep his word. Also, Trump doesn't pay his debts.
Attempting to make ANY deal with him is foolish. The wisest move is to expect him to screw over anyone who attempts to "work with" him, because unless you're holding his purse strings, he'll use you and lose you at his soonest opportunity. He is a cancer cell stealing resources from all the healthy cells around him - expect him to give nothing and take everything for his own gain.
I know to some that is "preaching to the choir," but living in the U.S. at a time like this, I really don't know who's been charmed by his BS vs who can see what's really going on. I imagine those outside the U.S. have better perspective, but I can't just expect people to be rational anymore.
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Yeah, well we didn't vote for him. He can keep his lunacy for his subjects.
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No amount of aid is going to turn one Ukrainian into four.
A mine field can cancel out numerical advantage. A robotic weapons station can turn one machine gunner into four (or more). Likewise, a swarming algorithm can allow one pilot to direct a flight of several drones.
So, to put it shortly - on the battlefield, technology can cancel out numerical advantages of 3.5 to 4 quite realistically.
Economically - Ukraine alone would not sustain production against Russia, but Ukraine happens to have EU in its back yard. The Russian economy is actually quite small compared to EU's economy. So the economic unbalance can also be canceled out.
But yes, you are correct to note that village by village, the map is turning red - Ukraine is running a thinly manned front and when pushed hard, yields territory to Russia gradually. During the past year, I would not be surprised if Russia had taken 1 additional percentage point of Ukraine, moving from 20% to 21% for example.
As for attrition on Russia - if you observe the footage and news, you will notice that they are low on cars, low on armor (and using a large percent of antiquated armor), and low on artillery barrels. Out of the USSR stockpile of ~13 000 tanks, estimated losses were recently standing at 9859 machines [1].
At a rate of 10 tanks per day, Russia will have to rely on freshly produced tanks after 300 days. Given how logistics behaves, they are using up all their production already currently, and supplementing it with renovation of increasingly old hardware.
Sadly, they are not anywhere near low on air-dropped bombs. Which I would characterize at their foremost advantage currently. As long as Ukraine cannot deter the bombing runs. (It can stretch and slow them by regularly visiting forward air bases with flights of drones.)
I will not tell you that "Russia is losing". I will only say that just like Ukraine cannot sustain the current situation, Russia cannot sustain the current intensity of attacking. Even a small technical development (e.g. arrival of a modern long-range air defense missile comparable to quite ancient Soviet S-200 missiles, or arrival of a fighter that can fire Meteor instead of AIM-120) could drive Russian aircraft beyond bombing range of the front, and halt the advance.
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"Russia is winning because media is pro ukraine on that map" and the quick advance? Yes they are advancing at a speed of 0.0003 km/day if i remember the math correctly. And for that suffer hundres of thousends of people and Equipment.
Yess the good old "it only took a million people but we finally took 5m²!" Approche from ww1 :3
The sanctions arent failing, the russian banks litterly cant give more money and the russian economy stands shortly before a collaps. And I can tell you the people to feel the weight of the war in their money, before there already was wide spread poverty but now its even worse. If a whole demographic of woman has come to the conclusion that marrying a soldier to have food when he is home and when he dies you get money is the strategie to survive, then your economy is failing. Why else is the rubble suddenly no longer able to be publicly traded? Oh what because its worthless and all your citicens exchanged it for other more stable currencys? Crazy. And with it no longer being public the government threw the banks can say what ever it wants the inflation rate and worth is, but the prices wont change for the better because of that.
And oooh what do my eyes see there? The good old "russia is big has many men, they can sustain any war!" Argument? The idiotic argument of someone who knows nothing about anything military and thinks russia = soviet union and they won ww2 all by themself with no outside help. Funny how i knew you were bringing this up lol
Russia with being on a litteral general draft where they are also in addition now taking still wounded soldiers, soldiers without arm and leg, from the hospitals, take them into a truck and send them off to the frontlines with the 60-70 year olds that get a few weeks training that already are sitting in their shit, rat infested, colera spreading trenches. For your info, ukraine still hasnt issued any draft of its people. Russias economie, which 2023 was 2,021 Billionen USD vs Ukraines which in 2023 was 102.03 Billion USD.
GDP isnt a measure of how well a country is doing, if that were so everyone in the UK was a millonair and in the USA there was no poverty. That is simple economics
But since you have already also proven that you dont know anything about economie or military here some tips:
If your country in 2024 had to result to stolen civilain vehicles, golf carts and now also donkeys for its supplys then you're not winning. If you have to rely on north korean soldiers, use them as bait by letting them stand in the open, you arent winning. If you lost your navy, to a country without a navy, you are losing. If you are using tech from 60 years ago, you arent winning. If you couldnt stop the enemy from gaining more land in a few weeks than you took in an entire year offensive, and the enemy only slowed down because you cut of the civilians electicity, water and other essential things, so the enemy had to organise food and water supplies for the civilians as well and because they restricted in how they can use their weapons, you arent winning.Oil and gas may be flowing, though it is to china, 10% of what you originally sold it and is now reliant and might as well using the Yuan.
Russia is at the complete mercy of Winnie Pohs Silk Empire
Hurray celebrate comrad!
What a success! /jBut yes. Russia is cleeeeaaaarly winning
