‘America is going down’: China can capitalise on damage caused by Trump, former PLA colonel says
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If you read the whole article, his actual statements sound pretty reasonable. Like he describes (to paraphrase) China and Russia as partners but not an alliance like two parallel lines that run next to each other but never overlap. And he doesn’t sound belligerent about Taiwan. More of a “As America collapses and China rises, maybe Taiwan will want to be a part of China proper as the most powerful nation.”
I don’t necessarily agree that China’s rise is inevitable and nor is America’s decline. (The last two days haven’t helped the latter but America has a short memory.) China’s economy, for all its strengths, can be sclerotic and legally uncertain. Trump is obviously a wildcard so the U.S. isn’t in a position to judge there. If I were rich, I wouldn’t know where to invest in either nation. Both countries, to me, need some significant reforms.
So, anyway, I’m not endorsing his newsletter or whatever but it doesn’t seem like he’s just spouting off jingoism.
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Krasnov strikes back.
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A "peaceful" unification with Taiwan (meaning no open war) is obviously in China's interest. I don't think being part of the PR of China is something Taiwan or any nation should go for, regardless of their influence over the world; Hong Kong's recent history should be a warning in that regard. But China doesn't want a way with Taiwan, they want Taiwan and would probably accept a war to achieve that goal, but would prefer to avoid it.
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Idk what novel they’re thinking of, but It Can’t Happen Here by Sinclair Lewis pretty closely predicted how things are currently going down. Fictional novel written around WWII about how what happened in Germany with the rise of Hitler could happen in the US.
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China faces too issues nobody ever talks about.
- Xi Jinping is old so within years, he'll need a successor....and with authoritarian systems, succession can be bloody.
- China is facing a demographic collapse they have zero grip on at the moment. They might lose half their population by the end of the century.
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Thank you to the Americans that took to the streets and demonstrated today.
Hopefully we will see more of that. -
America was already bowing to china because of Biden. Dont be fooled.
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China is going to eat Russia's lunch
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Regarding point 1, he is 71 years old. Certainly not young but Trump is 78, and if he makes it to the end of his term he will be 82…
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Generally speaking, autocrats have a shorter-than-average life expectancy. At least as leaders.
Trump's mental and physical decline is very remarkable if you compare him to his 2015 self vs now. He's slow, he has difficulty holding his attention (see Crimea annex comment this Friday), but the US still has a succession system -
I mean, sure, but PLA is always going to say those thing.
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This should probably make a lot of people here on lemmy very happy.
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both of these issues are really reaching.
- CCP will have no trouble of succeeding Xi as it's a single party system.
- The population issue is heavily overblown and we have yet to see it actually have an effect. China being a dictatorship also can handle this issue more efficiently than the west.
The only problem China would be facing is civil disobedience but as long as Chinese live slightly more comfortable year after year and don't notice the spying/firewall too much the Chinese are just too spineless to do anything.
That's why China basically has to do nothing to win geopolitica these days. Just sit back, continue spreading propaganda and see everything fall in their favor.
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CCP will have no trouble of succeeding Xi as it’s a single party system.
The farther term limits are in the past the harder it will be.
The population issue is heavily overblown
I'd say it's quite the opposite. Based on conversations with people who grew up in the one-child system and considering that one of the key elements of raising quality of life was reduction of births and spending more resources on these fewer kids, that are often traditionally raised by grandparents in their early years while parents are being economically productive. So people would have to compromise their present comfort to some extent to boost births. I've not seen a single nation in the world that succeeded in persistently raising births through pronatalist policy.
I'm not saying that this will be China's end, but realistically they have to either lower quality of life for the populace and/or really switch away from cheap manual labor as their primary model towards more automation etc.
...China basically has to do nothing to win geopolitica these days.
I totally agree with this part.
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I'm not convinced that shrinking population is at all an issue for a developed country that can replace workers with technology. China is already one if the most automated countries in the world and currently running the biggest infrastructure investments ever. I think if anyone can handle population reduction it's probably China.
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Can? No, this is incorrect.
They've already been capitalizing on this for a long time. That's why they supported and promoted him in the first place.
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People? No. Tankies maybe, but not people.
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Not an alliance? They run joint naval exercises and cooperate on social media psy-ops, they couldn't be more allied if Putin and Jinping shared an apartment and fucked on the balcony.
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Fair point.
