Risk of large asteroid striking Earth falls to 1.5%
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It technically would alter the moons orbit, but not by a lot. This asteroid would impact with roughly the energy of a nuclear bomb, which sounds like a lot, but on the scale of our moon it's negligible.
A rough estimation given my limited understanding of physics is that to change the moon's orbit by 1 m/s, you would need to impart something like 10²² joules of energy into it. Wikipedia says that if this asteroid hits the moon, the impact energy will be around 10¹⁶ joules. I don't know how much you know about exponents, but 10¹⁶ is approximately 0% of the way to 10²², and that's just change of 1 m/s
Of course, someone who actually understands physics is free to correct me if I'm wrong
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Is this the new seven minutes to midnight? We're 1.5% to asteroid.
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As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.
Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh
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"Hey, little guy, is an asteroid gonna kill us all?"
Cluck cluck!
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Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?
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Don’t look up.
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Africa actually does seem to be the most likely impact if it were to hit. The predicted impact would be along the equator.
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I am down to have monthly updates for the next few years, weekly updates through 2031, and daily updates throughout 2032
I just feel like if we do daily updates for the next 7 years when it's in all likelihood going to miss us, we'll be too complacent when an asteroid does have an impact trajectory
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So you're telling me there's still a chance
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There is this fun toy see/calculate the potential effect of any asteroid collision: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/
If it hits any city, that is wiped out. If it hit anything else, chances are damages are moderate.
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Here you simulate some of the effects. Pretty fun to drop an asteroid on some asshat from my youth's house. Less fun when it wiped out my entire city and evaporated my parents. Welp.. can't have it all I guess.
https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/ -
Everyone hoping there's still a chance, you need to remember... this is only a city-killer asteroid.
We need to hope for a much bigger asteroid.
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As long as it falls on the right city, it would do the entire world a massive, once in 500 years favor.
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I would sleep like a baby if it had these odds, lol.
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DART successfully moved an astroid that was probably way bigger!
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The way the world is going, it might not be a bad thing if it hits us.
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The moon would shrug that rock off without noticing. Any changes in measurements (mass, velocity, etc.) would be minuscule.
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Washington D.C. I hope.
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If it does, I think a bunch of new religions are going to pop up.
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I'll give mine, as long as someone helps with the shipping!
