German election live: Centre-right CDU and CSU parties win, say exit polls Far-right Alternative for Germany records best result with close to 20 per cent of the vote
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Inside Perspective here:
The former government colation (SPD, Greens, FDP) did not do a good enough job in the eyes of most germans. Mostly due to sabotage from the FDP who repeatedly blocked proposals and was the main reason for the breaking of the whole coaltition in the first place...
While the artivle claims that the CDU is expected to hold of against the AfD, the situation on the ground is different. Merz has just recently broken tabu by wanting to push an immigration restriction explicitly with votes from the AfD. So fears that the CDU is willing to form a government with them are substantiated by precedent.
This woule give them a majority, but could break the CDU internally. Not all of them like the AfD and Merz is barely human to begin with, especially unpopular with women for good reasons. Even a former chancellor, Angela Merkel, stepped in to explocitly criticise Merz for that move specifically.
Likely it will be CDU + SPD or CDU + SPD + Greens.
All of this is happening while a ban of the AfD is currently underway, but with this result that idea might become compromised.
Summary: Things turned out bad as expected, but as long as a CDU + AfD coalition is avoided, we still have a slim chance to not burn down the whole country.
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is there a possibility that FDP falls under electoral threshold this time?
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Possible, but it will be close. Will have to wait for the final count to know for sure, same with BSW
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what impact would it have on division of seats for other parties?
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Nazis won’t be part of the government after this result.
The conservatives have stated before the election that they won’t form a coalition with the far right AfD, the green party or the left party.
But with this result, they have a majority with the social democrats alone.This will be a stable, centrist, boring government, typically German. Too little progress, but no catastrophe, and no threat to EU democracy, nor to international obligations or support for Ukraine. Neither party are Putin bootlickers either.
In the opposition, the greens and the left combined have more seats than the AfD.
And 84% turnout is the highest since 1987!!! -
With the need to reduce or eliminate reliance on the US for defense and an increasingly pugilistic Russia, perhaps the next move should be to start a massive scale-up of the German armed forces. This could also give a necessary boost to the economy.
While the scale-up is in progress, a non-aggression pact with Russia would be prudent. Germany could always turn on them when the time is right.
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From what I've seen if FDP and BSW don't make the threshold, it's more likely that CDU/CSA and SPD will have a majority with just the two of them.
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German non-aggression pact with Russia... where have I read that before?
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Good old boring politics. Those were the days...
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SPD has all but officially confirmed their willingness to negotiate a coalition. There FPD won't have enough votes, if any. And the greens are too far apart.
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The only consolation is that the left got nearly 9% and green around 13% making 21% in total. A shame they won't make it into the coalition though.
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While the scale-up is in progress, a non-aggression pact with Russia would be prudent.
What for? Srsly what for? Russia proved they shit on bilateral and multilateral contracts and the Geneva convention. Why should anyone reward them with a NAP?
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Yeah, what I would give for more milquetoast leadership in Washington instead of this dumpster fire.
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Unfortunately those days gave AfD what they needed to attract the common man. A forgotten working class.
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The AfD really started picking up support with the asylum crisis, we had many boring years before that.
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I just think that you can't just follow a standard "boring" centre-right policy playbook and expect the far-right voters to disappear. AfD might get classified as an extremist group and not be allowed in the next election, but that demographic won't go anywhere. In fact, having their representation forcibly removed from parliament is likely to galvanise them.
The underlying problems need to be addressed.
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That is, wow. I guess it's true, but ATM it feels too high to be real. Like I also heard about two states having closer to 20% voter turnout. Which surely are outliers (and WTF is wrong with people to not vote with so much at stake), but still 84% is very high.
Sooo I just make a comment on social media stating my opinion asking for other opinions ... Alright I found something more useful: https://www.wahlen.info/bundestagswahl/wahlbeteiligung/
It seems conservative Bavaria was pulling the turnout train.
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Germany could always turn on them when the time is right.
That's too close to history to be an accident. I take the whole 2nd paragraph as satire, which I like.
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One part is addressing the problem, another part is addressing the lies that have exaggerated the problem. Both are important.
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Yes, they've been lied to about the reason for their lives are hard and the problems they have. However they won't accept that they have been lied to through if all you do is tell them. Words won't do it. Actions are necessary to demonstrate they are wrong.
