You think Trump might actually unite the world by demonstrating the logical extreme of the status quo of geopolitics?
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I'm not sure how widespread of an effect it would have, but that's actually happening in Canada. It was looking like we are on track for a mini fascist for our next PM until the diaper wearing cheeto united our whole country
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Yes, Israel will get together with Palestine & start working together better & cooperating.
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Best case, rest of the world goes Star Trek while the US goes Mad Max. I mean, if everything got better worldwide I kind of feel like we'll backslide again because people have no idea what struggle and suffering is anymore. The US can be a shining beacon on the hill proudly declaring, "Stay away! Dead inside!"
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If nothing else, one silver lining is he is SIGNIFICANTLY reducing the influence America and the West has on the world.
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In some ways he already is. I will give a few examples:
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The Conservative party in Canada was set to win a historic landslide majority victory in the upcoming elections. Their embracing of US-styled politics combined with Canadians feeling more united than ever has lead to them absolutely cratering in the polls so badly that the incumbent party is polling ahead in some polls. It is now being considered as potentially one of the worst election blunders in Canadian history. Canadians are cheering on local brands and production and are very warm to the idea of closer ties with Europe and the UK.
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President Zelenskyy is being heralded as a leader and hero of Ukrainian and European freedom and is seen as a model of just and honest leadership. Despite what Trump's supporters think, many Americans still support Ukraine and Zelenskyy.
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Prime Minister Starmer of the UK has united parliament, including their opposition, for increased support of Ukraine and European security and sovereignty. It is a huge shift from where they stood during the Brexit days.
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The EU is currently working on rearmament plans to promote domestic production of arms and security measures. Canada appears to be interested in this and I imagine other countries will eventually be too. The era of everyone buying American arms is coming to an end.
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Expanding on the last point more broadly: The US has shown to the world it is an unreliable partner and ally and the boycotts of American goods and services are spreading fast across its former allies. For example, there is a full on nation-wide boycott of American products in Canada right now and it is costing the Americans billions of dollars.
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The days of tip-toeing around Russia for the sake of political niceties is over. Major nation leaders are now calling out Russia for being a bloodthirsty dictatorship and accusing Trump of being a Russian plant. We need more than this, but this is a good start. Such open challenges to fascism would never have flown 5+ years ago. The first step to fighting fascism is to recognise it exists and identifying it as a threat.
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I think he's accelerating the decline of the US empire. And I think a new multipolar world with China taking on a leading role will emerge shortly. Within a few years at latest.
And I think that will be a massive benefit for the world at large. An advanced modern nation with a progressive forward leaning intent. It can only improve on the currently disintegrating unipolar US led world order.
It's gonna suck here for us in the imperial core. Just ask the older brits who lived thru the deconstruction of the British empire. But our decline will take place in months-years. Not years-decades. This was always going to happen. Never doubt it. But it would have taken decades and been a carefully managed decline as opposed to the swan dive off the cliffs edge we're seeing.
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I’m honestly surprised the MIC would let things deteriorate this much for the US defense industry. The next 15 years will be really bad for them, especially if European based companies can supplant their contracts other globally
Purely from a business perspective, the MIC must like the war in Ukraine and I would have thought their united lobbying efforts would be enough to save Ukraine from 0 US aid…
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think he's accelerating the decline of the US empire. And I think a new multipolar world with China taking on a leading role will emerge shortly. Within a few years at latest.
Thinking of geopolitics as a polarity is a way to make a complex subject more digestible, however when it's examined against actual history its highly reductive.
Even when the world was less complicated and communist nations weren't a hodgepodge of mixed markets, nothing was delineated so cleanly into something as simple as multipolarism.
Democratic capitalist nations still overthrew emerging capitalist democracies, communist nations still went to war with other communist nations. I think it's a bit optimistic to believe that political and economic instability inexplicably births unity.
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I'm guessing the executives of those companies intended to take the kickback Trump promised them and other rich folk and then flee into the hills with their money.
They're in for a good shock when the US economy implodes and the USD starts to tumble.
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idk. If western governments had any ability to learn or care, WWII surely would have been that moment. But after beating the endpoint of imperialism, they without irony or self awareness, just kept doing imperialism. I'm not holding my breath.
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So my thing is, the “deep state” for want of a better word, ultimately won’t let Trump and his backers wreck 70 years of American hegemony since WWII.
Iraq, the Cold War, the coups, assassinations a d sanctions throughout South America, all the bases in the Philippines and around the South China…. It all took a a lot of work.
I’d be surprised if America lets that go.
If you look at what going on in terms of countries moving away from US - nothing has really happened yet. Countries that don’t buy arms and oil from the US, or don’t give the US preferential access to their resources, have historically been awarded a regime change, or worse .
If we look beyond the hoohar, they actually trying to get Zelensky out now, in favour of someone more obedient. That will just sign away resources for a cease fire .
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MIC = Morons In Charge?
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To an extent, this was already happening. The rise of BRI and other international infrastructural agreements, BRICS, and so forth already point to weakening US power, and have done so for decades. The US's use of the dollar to skim off the top of every country it has financially dominated has created a system of reliance on itself and at the same time hostility towards it. Trump pivoting to more "naked" Imperialism doesn't mean he started it, or that other countries haven't been aware for decades and centuries of needing to pivot away from the US Empire.
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I'd like to think it's a kind of zero approval gambit, he was once a dem I heard. But I think it's much more likely he's literally a Russian asset and the question is how much damage can the American system of checks and balances prevent before the next elections.
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Checks out. But also Military Industrial Complex.
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The EU will attempt [...] to take the US's place as the World Hegemon, [...].
What makes you think that?
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They are already trying to step up, and are ramping up their millitaries (Germany in particular announced a large expansion in millitary spending). They have been utterly vassalized and under the firm domination of the dollar for decades, yet try to take the high ground over the US. The fact remains that the EU isn't industrialized nor millitarized enough to not be utterly dependent on the US, Russia, or China, so ultinately they will have to pick who they depend on, at least until the illusion of financial independence breaks and they are forced to build up their own productive forces to build that independence in reality.
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I'll believe Trump actually intends to cut the military when he does it. People on both sides like to pretend he's an isolationist but military spending only went up in his first term. Likely, he's just going to pivot to China.
Ofc it's congress who sets the budget so he can just quietly sign off on the increases the same way he quietly gives tax cuts to the rich.
