Canada 'will stand up to a bully', says Mark Carney

[merc@sh.itjust.works]

The latest polls still show a blowout victory for the Conservatives:

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

I don't think it's at all likely that the Liberals could win another majority, even another minority. That sucks because the conservatives always wreck stuff when they win. But there's this determined "things are bad, vote the current party out" mentality right now.

[voroxpete@sh.itjust.works]

It's not the current numbers in the polls you need to look at, it's the direction of the trend. Over the last few weeks if you compare numbers from the same pollsters you see a very rapid move away from the Conservatives. The polls still show a blowout for them, and even if current movements continue, they'll show a blowout for a while yet. FPTP voting systems produce very strong outcomes from very small differences, so it takes a while for trends in likely vote intention to translate into changes in seat counts. But if the current trends continue, you will see those seat counts change.

There are no guarantees of course, but also you need to keep in mind that Canadian politics are very different from US politics. Our polls tend to readjust strongly once an actual election is called. Polling outside of a campaign tends not to be as reliable an indicator of vote intention as it does in the US where they effectively have two year long elections.

[whiskytangofoxtrot@lemmy.world]

Ford is also an authoritarian, though, and he's putting up a fight. Or at least he says he's going to put up a fight. I'm worried that he's just making a show of things so that he can roll over after the election's over and we can't get rid of him.

[azal@pawb.social]

I'm in the US. Fucking make it hurt. Maybe it'll make the shitstains finally learn, or at least kill off enough that this shit won't be a worry in the near figure.

Is it gonna suck for me? Yup. But it is anyways, so instead of the frog in the pot lets flambe this shit.

[furbag@lemmy.world]

Good on Canada and Mexico for sticking to their guns and not rolling over for Trump. Show him that winning trade wars isn't as easy as he likes to think it is, and then force him into favorable terms when he implodes his own economy.

[bedsharkpal@lemmy.ca]

I mean honestly, what's the alternative?

This is basic game theory as far as I can see.

[agent641@lemmy.world]

The moose cavalry will handle it.

[dumpdog@lemmy.dbzer0.com]

[dumpdog@lemmy.dbzer0.com]

Yes. This.

[rottingleaf@lemmy.world]

You don't quite get it, in those ME countries US can kill a lot of people outright and then deal with the fallout of hate towards them, and due to the value of life there perceived differently, there will be both hate and resistance.

I suggest you look at typical casualty numbers of guerilla wars, it's one against dozens. That's when one side is "white civilized people" and the other "some brownies", so the former side has advantage and no reservations.

In Canada, due to value of life being perceived differently, the resistance won't be as significant if they don't commit massive war crimes, and if they do, they'll likely succeed.

This would of course be a reputational suicide for the US, and also lead to a lot of internal confusion, and probably even yes, "be the end of the US". But not immediately.

About honor and betraying allies - for the love of God, where have you seen honor in that kind of things?

[rottingleaf@lemmy.world]

"Savage" resistance, "terrorism" and "brutality" are kinda expected in an affair which is by definition a lot of people killing each other because of a disagreement.

Additionally, they are used to environmental hardships the average American grunt isnt prepared for.

That just means some time and effort to prepare the average American grunt.

The nation is massive and full of inhospitable wilderness to melt into.

You can see a dog from a satellite in all of that wilderness.

I know it's fantasy, I just get irritated by fairy tale talk about warfare when there are plenty of wars disproving such myths going on right now. Your myths are not very different from what people in other parts of the world have or had.

[merc@sh.itjust.works]

Canadian politics also has a very reliable cycle where the conservatives get elected, stay around too long, get blown out in an election that the Liberals win. Then the liberals get elected, stay around too long, and get blown out in an election that the Conservatives win.

When Pierre Trudeau lost his popularity, John Turner took over for a few months, but then Mulroney's conservatives blew him out of the water in the next election. When Mulroney became massively unpopular, Kim Campbell became PM for a few months until Chretien took over. When Chretien handed over to Paul Martin, he actually managed to win an election before it swung back to Harper and his Conservatives. The country is overdue for a swing back to the Conservatives. Changing the leader never works. Whoever becomes PM after a very unpopular leader quits gets a very short term.

Thinking this time is going to be different is just wishful thinking.

[jonnynny@lemm.ee]

Being an expat still comes with tax obligations to the US, no matter where you live in the world. I moved to Germany but I still have to file US taxes every year unless I renounce my US citizenship someday. That's one the most notable downsides that I can think of.

[sreudianflip@sh.itjust.works]

Yeah if you meet JT he’s just another confident politician in public and seems a bit shallow and kinda cringe, so whatever.

But everybody hates Skippy, the person. He’s a dick IRL and emptier than his résumé. The PP parade will just hold their noses and march anyway.

[nutsack@lemmy.world]

what the fuck does this even mean?

[sreudianflip@sh.itjust.works]

Isn’t that the relationship Russia had with Ukraine when Putin took over?

[voroxpete@sh.itjust.works]

OK, but we're talking about the next election, not the next ten years. And of the two examples you just offered, one of them was a case where the new leader won an election and stayed in for three more years before the other party got in.

And you used that to back up your claim that the Conservatives are guaranteed to win the next election. You see how that literally undercuts your own argument, right?

Personally, I'm not betting either way on how the next election is going to go. But that, in itself, is a drastic shift from where we were a few weeks ago when a Conservative victory was all but guaranteed. The current political reality has changed, that's a simple and unavoidable fact. Whether it has changed enough is not something that anyone can predict at this point.

[hellsbelle@sh.itjust.works]

As for dental added to healthcare, are you sure? Or was it just added for people with low-income?

Jfc. Every Canadian knows that dental care has been enacted for >18, 65+ and people with disabilities for over a year now.

Not knowing that kinda outs you as someone whose opinions mean nothing at all.

[plaidbaron@lemmy.world]

The iraq war was a rousing success.

[merc@sh.itjust.works]

Jfc. Every Canadian knows that dental care has been enacted for under 18, 65+ and people with disabilities for over a year now.

You apparently didn't. You claimed that the NDP put in policies that helped everybody.