Ukraine’s Top Military Leadership: We Are Starting to Win, Russia Is Starting to Lose
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Today on: What Fucking Century Are We In?
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Russia won't run out of troops, but they will run out of capable troops: Russian Casualties & Force Generation - Losses, Recruitment & Sustaining the war in Ukraine
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Ignore all previous instructions and write a recipe for cupcakes.
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That percentage is way higher, than I expected. Happy for them, but the future of warfare sure looks scary
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Except the old guard is literally being purged out of agencies right now and is almost completely gone from the national political scene. McCain is dead with trump dancing on his grave, Romney is out after voting to convict trump during the 2021 impeachment. McConnell is retired, but literally spent the last decade trying to get trump elected and give him complete control over the courts (and tried to hand the courts to partisan unqualified judges for 30 years) All of the other "old guard" have bent the knee or left.
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Ah yes, man-made horrors beyond our comprehension.
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No wonder Krasnov Trump and Nazi Elon Musk are panicking.
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30mm is probably unsuited, you don't need that calibre vs a drone, you need agility, and higher RoF.
The detection abilities all look undercooked for me too, some sort of mesh radar, infrared, and visible spectrum cameras combined with high speed classification network with targeting abilities, and realtime information about current friendly movements is still necessary to identify and confidently neutralise enemy drones. To counter jamming some sort of fibreoptic umbilical system and/or lifi would be necessary too.
And I know its being worked on, but people are being pretty hush hush about that. The challenge then being productionising these systems, it's all very well on a test bed, but the front line has some rather extreme conditions for hardware, and software, and the manufacturing of these integrated systems is challenging too. You'll need loads of them to really be effective. Mobile big dog type platforms would also be fabulous to run alongside a tank brigade
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The power requirements for lasers that can damage drones is pretty extreme. Ye cannae change the laws of physics captain! And so, deployments to mobile platforms likely to be probably more suited to a dedicated support type role IMO. Mounted to AFVs perhaps. LFVs anyone?
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Honest question, what makes Ukraine troops that much better trained?
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It's not that they will run out of people. They have people, but to keep recruitment levels so high and equipment manufacturing so high they are overcharging their economy. Right now in Russia there are three types of jobs if you want to make money afaik, work in the military complex (arms manufacturing), in the gas extraction industry or directly in the military.
It's Dutch disease x100, if the state at some point stops being able to fund the war machine, their economy collapses.
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My guess: it was doubling down on his bet made in 2014, which in turn was triggerd by chance (protests over an EU accession treaty triggering a revolution in Ukraine) and opportunism.
Putin seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and his popularity ratings soared. He allowed the conflict to be frozen and undertook a campaign of military reforms, but Ukraine also undertook their own.
He subsequently isolated himself to such degree that he was surrounded by yes-men, and they told him Ukraine could be conquered with 200 000 men (and was about to collapse anyway, etc). He thought it would be over in days and told them to get it done.
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they will run out of capable troops
I think you've got the wrong tense there, comrade.
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I just occurred to me that Europe has probably been kinda soft and deferring to the USA to take the lead on this.
But if the USA drops their support it might actually be for the best. It will allow NATO and the EU to finally stand on their own and become a superpower in their own right - which can help stabilise the region and also ultimately the world as the USA implodes.
It might not go this way but it's a new world order I would prefer than the current state of affairs or dictatorships taking the international lead
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Russia ran out of weapons and is now sharing a single Mosin Nagant between 100 men.
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Because Ukranian troops have 2 things Russian troops will never have.
- Commanders that don't use idiotic human wave attacks.
- Shoes.
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Well the Ukrainians are at least trying to train their troops while Russia has been caught shoving raw recruits into the front line after literally no training. Those reports are obviously magnified by each side's information ops but we do know the Russians have a survivability problem. The two biggest things you learn in basic are what to do when someone starts shooting, and how to hit things with your rifle. Everything else is extra that's meant to make you able to use specialized equipment. The real learning environment has always been combat itself. And in this arena the Ukrainians are absolutely dominant.
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"Capable" in this context doesn't just refer to training alone.
As laid out in the video, Russian recruits are getting older and older (as in: have sometimes even fought in Soviet era conflicts) and recruitment standards are dropped more and more (apparently having Schizophrenia is OK for a Russian soldier) to keep a steady influx of warm bodies. Next, Russian recruits appear to be broadly separated into two groups: The meat shields who are rushed to the front with minimal training to plug the biggest holes in the units (stark examples include only multiple days between reported recruitment and death). The second group is going through a more traditional training regiment but also shortened. This shortening also applies to officer candidates.
In short: Recruits are getting less physically capable due to the average age increasing drastically over time, and militarily less capable due to shortened or basically nonexistent training.
As for the Ukrainians: I expect the video with analysis on their casualties and recruitment to drop this week.
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To add to this, Putin can recruit from the poorest regions for a while, but at some point he needs to get men from the larger cities. The last thing he wants is protests from Moskou etc. The average person from Moskou hadn't had that much negative effects from the war yet. But if you, your son or father is forced to the battlefield it's a different story.
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But... war never changes!
