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I really think GenAI is comparable to the internet in terms of what it will allow mankind in a couple of decades.

Lots of people thought the internet was a fad and saw no future for it ...

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I don't know. In a lot of usecase AI is kinda crap, but there's certain usecase where it's really good. Honestly I don't think people are giving enough thought to it's utility in early-middle stages of creative works where an img2img model can take the basic composition from the artist, render it then the artist can go in and modify and perfect it for the final product. Also video games that use generative AI are going to be insane in about 10-15 years. Imagine an open world game where it generates building interiors and NPCs as you interact with them, even tying the stuff the NPCs say into the buildings they're in, like an old sailer living in a house with lots of pictures of boats and boat models, or the warrior having tons of books about battle and decorative weapons everywhere all in throw away structures that would have previously been closed set dressing. Maybe they'll even find sane ways to create quests on the fly that don't feel overly cookie-cutter? Life changing? Of course not, but definitely a cool technology with a lot of potential

Also realistically I don't think there's going to be long term use for AI models that need a quarter of a datacenter just to run, and they'll all get tuned down to what can run directly on a phone efficiently. Maybe we'll see some new accelerators become common place maybe we won't.

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Sure but you had the .com bubble but it was still useful. Same as AI in a big bubble right now doesn't mean it won't be useful.

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Lots of techies loved the internet, built it, and were all excited. Lots of normies didn't see the point.

With AI it's pretty much the other way around: CEOs saying "we don't need programmers, any more", while people who understand the tech roll their eyes.

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I believe programming languages will become obsolete. You'll still need professionals that will be experts in leading the machines but not nearly as hands on as presently. The same for a lot of professions that exist currently.

I like to compare GenAI to the assembly line when it was created, but instead of repetitive menial tasks, it's repetitive mental tasks that it improves/performs.

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Oh yes, there definitely is a bubble, but I don't believe that means the tech is worthless, not even close to worthless.

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Oh great you're one of them. Look I can't magically infuse tech literacy into you, you'll have to learn to program and, crucially, understand how much about programming is not about giving computers instructions.

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Hey, Trump already did! Twice...

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Let's talk in five years. There's no point in discussing this right now. You're set on what you believe you know and I'm set on what I believe I know.

And, piece of advice, don't assume others lack tech literacy because they don't agree with you, it just makes you look like a brat that can't discuss things maturely and invites the other part to be a prick as well.

Especially because programming is quite fucking literally giving computers instructions, despite what you believe keyboard monkeys do. You wanker!

What? You think "developers" are some kind on mythical beings that possess the mystical ability of speaking to the machines in cryptic tongues?

They're a dime a dozen, the large majority of "developers" are just cannon fodder that are not worth what they think they are.

Ironically, the real good ones probably brought about their demise.

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That's not the way it works. And I'm not even against that.

It sill won't work this way a few years later.

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I'm not talking about this being a snap transition. It will take several years but I do think this tech will evolve in that direction.

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Especially because programming is quite fucking literally giving computers instructions, despite what you believe keyboard monkeys do. You wanker!

What? You think “developers” are some kind on mythical beings that possess the mystical ability of speaking to the machines in cryptic tongues?

First off, you're contradicting yourself: Is programming about "giving instructions in cryptic languages", or not?

Then, no: Developers are mythical beings who possess the magical ability of turning vague gesturing full of internal contradictions, wishful thinking, up to right-out psychotic nonsense dreamt up by some random coke-head in a suit, into hard specifications suitable to then go into algorithm selection and finally into code. Typing shit is the easy part.

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You must be a programmer. Can't understand shit if what you're told to do and then blame the client for "not knowing how it works". Typical. Stereotypical even!

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Obvious troll is obvious.

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Of course. Move along boy, go back to shouting at big bad clients because "programmers are special".

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In part we agree. However there are two things to consider.

For one, the llms are plateauing pretty much now. So they are dependant on more quality input. Which, basically, they replace. So perspecively imo the learning will not work to keep this up. (in other fields like nature etc there's comparatively endless input for training, so it will keep on working there).

The other thing is, as we likely both agree, this is not intelligence. It has it's uses.
But you said to replace programming, which in my opinion will never work: were missing the critical intelligence element. It might be there at some point. Maybe llm will help there, maybe not, we might see. But for now we don't have that piece of the puzzle and it will not be able to replace human work with (new) thought put into it.

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Back then the CEOs were babbling about information superhighways while tech rolled their eyes

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Shovel vendors scrambling for solid ground as prospectors start to understand geology.