AfD is the most popular party in Germany for the first time, with a record 26%
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That entirely depends on the other parties.
As long as they have less than 50% the other parties could (in theory) band together against them and create a coalition government.
The problem arises when that coalition has to become more diverse. As you can imagine the populist right would rather work together with the far right than with the populist left, so the coalition becomes shaky, paralyzed because they cannot come to agreements. The common denominator will be so small that basically nothing gets done, and the oppositional party will profit from that.
Shaky coalition governments can lead to government breakups and snap elections which in combination with the resulting loss of trust and inability to do anything of the government will likely lead to an even stronger opposition and even more shaky governments or right out majority for the plurality party.
As you can imagine the populist right would rather work together with the far right than with the populist left
Ah fuck it let's give the Churches money to build apartments, then. They don't believe in anything anyway so let's just capture a vague sense of conservativeness.
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punish lies, and regulate the media.
So to save democracy, we need to abolish 2 of its most important characteristics - freedom of speech and freedom of the press.
No freedom is absolute. If you can keep abusing your rights with no repercussions, those rights are worthless.
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What does Bundesreg under Green and SPD mean? Or asked differently... Why doesn't FDP have that text?
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They just asked 1502 people by phone.
Yes. That's a usual number for representative polling. Sometimes, they ask 1.000, sometimes 2.000. The other German polling institutes are doing the same.
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What does Bundesreg under Green and SPD mean? Or asked differently... Why doesn't FDP have that text?
Right know Scholz is still chancellor and the old government still in office. This only changes when Merz is voted into office and the new government formed. FDP is not part of the government anymore since the old coalition failed.
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One predicates the other, though.
Clearly Germany is not doing enough to put a stop to the rising conservatism movement, and the next election might not end as favorably as a result.
Clearly Germany is not doing enough to put a stop to the rising conservatism movement
What do you mean by they are not doing enough? They are basically doing nothing else to the point of not actually doing any constructive work anymore.
Every single party is heavily competing about who can move faster to the far-right and parrot nazi narratives louder to get those voters back. And if totally it totally surprisingly doesn't work (who would have thought that alienating some voters while telling the others that nazi propaganda lies are totally okay as long as they are telling them is the perfect campaign... for the AfD) they double down again and again.
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The problem is that more simple minded people who are actually conservative, as they want to conserve society as it is, will easily fall for the propaganda and vote for a party that is out to destroy what they want to conserve.
The self proclaimed standing of a party is part of its propaganda. Unfortunately the media are complicit with the parties on perpetuating their propaganda, by calling parties by their chosen adjectives, rather than by what would be more fitting. Conservatives should rather be called "Destructives", and in many countries, "Social Democrats" are rather Neoliberals, for they have long sold out social democracy to the highest bidder and now follow an extremist free market ideology, their only remaining difference to the "Conservatives" being not wanting to return to societal norms from 60 years ago.
Populist intentionally choose words that attract potential voters, they will continue to do that. But calling them out for not being real conservatives because they act different is definitely helpful.
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Short version is they cannot govern without a coalition partner, but they gain other rights in the parliament, such as filling important positions in the administration. When they reach 1/3 of the votes, so 33% they have a Sperrminorität, which means they can't prevent changes in the constitution and also hinder new judges in the constitutional court.
Also 25% in an election would allow installing parliamentary inquiry commissions, which can be a decent way to obstruct the government by busying the bureaucracy and hogging media time.
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In phone polls, not an election...
But they already performed very well in the last election.
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Yes. That's a usual number for representative polling. Sometimes, they ask 1.000, sometimes 2.000. The other German polling institutes are doing the same.
So it is a poll of people who answer phone numbers they don’t recognize.
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So it is a poll of people who answer phone numbers they don’t recognize.
You can of course criticize that, but Forsa exists since 1984 and they are not known for publishing unrealistic polls. The polls are not the problem here. The people turning off their brains and voting for the far right are the problem.
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They just asked 1502 people by phone.
That's how statistics works. You take a sample and interpret the reality based on that sample. When you get a blood exam, you don't need to check all the blood, you take a sample and based on that get a result.
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I'm not calming down. This dumb shit happens just far too often lately. I have no idea, why people insinuate things others never said and burn that strawman down, but I'm getting too tired and more and more pissed off by it, to the point where I wonder if it's even worth it or I should rather stop discussing.
Shit's annoying AF.
You should stop discussing because what you call a straw man is a perfectly reasonable interpretation of your comment. If you don't want it to be open to interpretation, you should be more clear, rather than get mad at people taking one of the reasonable interpretations.
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Germany, you're supposed to be good guys this round.
Germany is the America of the EU, since Britain left
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Many of those aren't real votes but "protest" support. Very dumb imo. They're hoping its a wakeup to the other parties but it really just emboldens the afd.
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So CDU is just AfD in disguise...
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You should stop discussing because what you call a straw man is a perfectly reasonable interpretation of your comment. If you don't want it to be open to interpretation, you should be more clear, rather than get mad at people taking one of the reasonable interpretations.
About as reasonable an interpretation as asking you if you mean humans shouldn't ever feel emotions by saying "Calm down".
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I see a growth trend that if it continues will suck even more in a few years
This is the important insight. The absolute numbers in any poll aren't that interesting. The trends are.
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Many of those aren't real votes but "protest" support. Very dumb imo. They're hoping its a wakeup to the other parties but it really just emboldens the afd.
Please look at the US and what's happening here right now.
A significant portion of Trump's voters in 2016 were protest anti-establishment voters and they've been converted into full on Fascist voters in the 8 years since then.
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Many of those aren't real votes but "protest" support. Very dumb imo. They're hoping its a wakeup to the other parties but it really just emboldens the afd.
Are they dumber than the parties that didn't get the message?
