Bernstein Posits That A 10 Percent Baseline US Tariff On Raw Semiconductors Is "Not Going To Do All That Much," But PCs, Servers, And Smartphones Are About To Get Pricier By ~40 Percent
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So glad I built my pc last fall. Fuck all this bullshit and everyone that voted for it.
wrote 8 days ago last edited byOr didnt vote against it
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Inflation from the Fed helicoptering money around was probably the most predicted thing that's happened in the last 50 years. It should have surprised literally no one.
It's also no surprise that it hasn't gone away. That's called deflation and every central banker on the planet would rather be eviscerated with a rusty spoon than allow deflation to happen.
wrote 8 days ago last edited byExcept that's not what happened, companies used the slowdowns in shipping from Covid shutdowns as an excuse to raise prices, then never lowered them. This isn't inflation, this was intentionally planned, don't belive me? Listen to their fucking earnings calls specifically saying it out loud.
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This post did not contain any content.wrote 8 days ago last edited by
The internet is about to feel a lot slower for us as more services move offshore to flee the taxes.
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Except that's not what happened, companies used the slowdowns in shipping from Covid shutdowns as an excuse to raise prices, then never lowered them. This isn't inflation, this was intentionally planned, don't belive me? Listen to their fucking earnings calls specifically saying it out loud.
wrote 8 days ago last edited byCompanies deciding to raise prices (for any reason — justified or not) is what inflation is made of.
Inflation just means “prices went up.”
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thank god we didn’t see a massive wave in inflation out of that.
Where are you that hasn't seen massive inflation since COVID?
wrote 8 days ago last edited byI think that was the joke.
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He wasn't successful at anything.
He slashed the corporate income tax and due to an effective amnesty on repatriation many large MNCs brought stashed offshore cash and cut R&D to register massive earnings for his last 2 years.
Ironically, this started to dry up right around Q1 2020... Then COVID drowned out everything.
His response was to just pump $4T to employers with almost no documentation, thank god we didn't see a massive wave in inflation out of that.
wrote 8 days ago last edited bylets not forget browbeating the fed to drop interest rates before covid hit.
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That was with very clear money laundering too.
wrote 8 days ago last edited byHow do you bankrupt a casino while also running a money laundering scheme and still fail? Someone should turn his life into a movie it'd be like anti breaking bad
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Markets will still consider it a win if Trump does not else good in the next 4 years except for extend the “tax cuts and jobs” billionaire and corporate handouts.
Of the Top 10 most profitable companies in the world 8 of them are American. Those 8 companies lost enough Market Capitalization in the last 24 hours to fund a mid-sized Country. "The Markets" are not fucking happy at all.
wrote 8 days ago last edited byTrump is making more enemies in business than the most liberal of democrat presidents could ever do. That's impressive.
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How do you bankrupt a casino while also running a money laundering scheme and still fail? Someone should turn his life into a movie it'd be like anti breaking bad
wrote 8 days ago last edited byYeah but what’s the moral to the story? Keep failing over and over again and you’ll end up being the most powerful man in the world twice? Not a story that can be told without realising that the world is corrupt cesspool.
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He wasn't successful at anything.
He slashed the corporate income tax and due to an effective amnesty on repatriation many large MNCs brought stashed offshore cash and cut R&D to register massive earnings for his last 2 years.
Ironically, this started to dry up right around Q1 2020... Then COVID drowned out everything.
His response was to just pump $4T to employers with almost no documentation, thank god we didn't see a massive wave in inflation out of that.
wrote 8 days ago last edited byOkay this post reeks of not understanding basic accounting. Bringing back cash doesn’t affect profits for firms. The earnings were already earned. Having money over seas and bringing it on shore does not increase your profits, it just frees it up for investment (or giving to shareholders).
Also cutting R&D does not change profits in the short term. Any amount of R&D doesn’t change profits in the short term (either less or more). R&D is treated as an asset and depreciates over time (which does affect profits) but that’s clearly not what you’re saying here.
The rest of your post I’m not arguing with but your understanding of accounting and how offshore money works is factually incorrect.
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Okay this post reeks of not understanding basic accounting. Bringing back cash doesn’t affect profits for firms. The earnings were already earned. Having money over seas and bringing it on shore does not increase your profits, it just frees it up for investment (or giving to shareholders).
Also cutting R&D does not change profits in the short term. Any amount of R&D doesn’t change profits in the short term (either less or more). R&D is treated as an asset and depreciates over time (which does affect profits) but that’s clearly not what you’re saying here.
The rest of your post I’m not arguing with but your understanding of accounting and how offshore money works is factually incorrect.
wrote 8 days ago last edited byhttps://www.bea.gov/news/2019/direct-investment-country-and-industry-2018
The TCJA generally eliminated taxes on dividends, or repatriated earnings, to U.S. multinationals from their foreign affiliates. Dividends of $776.5 billion in 2018 exceeded earnings for the year, which led to negative reinvestment of earnings, decreasing the investment position for the first time since 1982. Tables 3 and 4 provide information on the country and industry breakdown of dividends.
By country, nearly half of the dividends in 2018 were repatriated from affiliates in Bermuda ($231.0 billion) and the Netherlands ($138.8 billion). Ireland was the third largest source of dividends, but its value is suppressed due to confidentiality requirements. By industry, U.S. multinationals in chemical manufacturing ($209.1 billion) and computers and electronic products manufacturing ($195.9 billion) repatriated the most in 2018.
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Companies deciding to raise prices (for any reason — justified or not) is what inflation is made of.
Inflation just means “prices went up.”
wrote 8 days ago last edited byThat is an extremely simplified take of what inflation is.
Here's a fun example as to why just saying "inflation means prices go up" doesn't make sense, what happens when a group of companies conspire to raise prices simultaneously? Is that inflation or is that price fixing?
https://www.propublica.org/article/yieldstar-rent-increase-realpage-rent -
That is an extremely simplified take of what inflation is.
Here's a fun example as to why just saying "inflation means prices go up" doesn't make sense, what happens when a group of companies conspire to raise prices simultaneously? Is that inflation or is that price fixing?
https://www.propublica.org/article/yieldstar-rent-increase-realpage-rentwrote 8 days ago last edited byIn your scenario that’s inflation caused by price fixing. You seem to be saying these things are mutually exclusive but I don’t understand why you would say that.
Presumably price fixing in one industry would have trouble causing general systemic inflation. But simultaneous greed and price fixing through many industries all at once? Sure, that would do it.
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This post did not contain any content.wrote 8 days ago last edited by
I'm sure corporations aren't going to use this excuse to hike the prices even more, like they did with the energy crisis ...
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In your scenario that’s inflation caused by price fixing. You seem to be saying these things are mutually exclusive but I don’t understand why you would say that.
Presumably price fixing in one industry would have trouble causing general systemic inflation. But simultaneous greed and price fixing through many industries all at once? Sure, that would do it.
wrote 8 days ago last edited byI suppose my point is if we put any cause of rising prices under the "inflation" umbrella, it gives people the wrong idea as to the cause. Rather then just specifying what is causing prices to rise, people just say "it's inflation."
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Or didnt vote against it
wrote 8 days ago last edited byAnd who is eligible to actually vote in the election
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How do you bankrupt a casino while also running a money laundering scheme and still fail? Someone should turn his life into a movie it'd be like anti breaking bad
wrote 8 days ago last edited byBankruptcy is a strategy at the corporate level.
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Except that's not what happened, companies used the slowdowns in shipping from Covid shutdowns as an excuse to raise prices, then never lowered them. This isn't inflation, this was intentionally planned, don't belive me? Listen to their fucking earnings calls specifically saying it out loud.
wrote 8 days ago last edited byLook at the money supply compared to inflation. Inflation went up due to supply shocks, central banks printed money as supply shocks eased, and we're left with stable, higher prices.
If central banks didn't print money during the inflationary period, we would've seen a period of deflation as prices returned roughly to where they were.
Seriously, look up the numbers. Here's UK money supply, for example.
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Ok. The bottom line is, either it "won't do all that much"-- meaning it won't affect prices, it won't affect the economy, it'll be basically useless--or it will be disastrously expensive for ordinary people. There is no other option. The "disastrously expensive for ordinary people" is the only thing that will cause any amount of the change Trump promises: it's the mechanism by which the plan operates.
There is no option where companies just eat the tariff costs, or countries pay them. Maybe a few scattered companies and countries do, but by and large, not a chance.
Every country in the world needs all the other countries more than all of the other countries need it. There's just no real leverage, because we're all interconnected; you can snip one country out, and it'll slightly hurt everyone, but it'll wreck the country that was snipped out.
wrote 8 days ago last edited byThat's true if all other things were equal, but they're not. The US is the largest economy in the world, based on GDP, so it has a lot more weight to swing around than others. So theoretically, the US should have more leverage than smaller countries.
That said, I don't think the US has enough leverage to get away with this. Retaliatory tariffs will come and the net result is that trade in all regions will suffer. When you tax something, you get less of it...
The US might be able to get some leverage if we had an economist in power w/ strong diplomacy skills, but we have Trump.
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I suppose my point is if we put any cause of rising prices under the "inflation" umbrella, it gives people the wrong idea as to the cause. Rather then just specifying what is causing prices to rise, people just say "it's inflation."
wrote 8 days ago last edited byInflation is defined as the increase of prices over a set period of time. It is in itself nothing, doesn't do anything and its singular purpose is to be able to say how much something costs today compared to yesteryear.
If the price difference depends on a supply chock (something that affects the ability to produce, like a shortage), or a demand chock (suddenly everbody rejects Tesla) is all the same, it results in a price change and can therefore be compared using the measure inflation.