Russia has depleted its tank stocks: the industry is not covering combat losses
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I think not even the CIA predicted the effectiveness of drones and javelins against old armor. Without modern defenses, they are just sitting (or slowly moving) ducks. Add to this the corruption in the military, causing lack of maintenance and missing parts, plus the gaps in skills and training of their soldiers.
We are maybe 1-2 years away from the Russian military collapsing, if it weren’t for the orange clown.
I said 15 months or less to hyperinflation somewhere yesterday. In that case, they could theoretically start conscription and grind Ukraine down that way, or start selling big ticket things like territory in exchange for help, but political capacity to enforce that is a serious question.
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Elsewhere on Lemmy today;
Germany warns Russia may be preparing attack on NATO
Both of these cannot be true.
Russia is still ramping up military production on a wartime economy, to be used after the Ukrainians stop fighting back.
Also their production focuses on their modern options for land and air. I don't know what their naval production is doing. -
I was told that russia was bankrupt and the war would be over in 3 months. And then when that wagner guy revolted, it was the final nail in the coffin
Yet here we are and the war is still on.
It's not our fault you have been badly informed.
Everyone knows the russian economy is on the ropes for example, but when will it crack? No one knows.
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155mm, and the U.S. has about 1500 of its M109 self propelled guns in service.
for some reason I had it in my head the Paladin wasn't as large as an artillery piece, idk why, I guess because it is tracked and it was developed so many decades before this current wave of self propelled guns being developed.
Still, my point stands though, if the U.S. was serious about arming Ukraine from the beginning, they would have focused on supplying Ukraine with self propelled guns and lots of artillery. It feels like the effort to help Ukraine defend itself was more an effort to help stall the war and keep Russia from decisively winning for as long as possible...
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Elsewhere on Lemmy today;
Germany warns Russia may be preparing attack on NATO
Both of these cannot be true.
We have to keep in mind that Europe needs to justify austerity for the citizens and rearmament for their militaries. I have no evidence of this, but I think it's an entierly sensible read that the warning from Germany is an overstatement with that intent in mind.
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Even your comment advocating for reasonable spending gets downvoted. People are mad on war propaganda.
This is how quickly the cancer of militarism spreads and why war is the favorite tool of the ruling class rich, time immemorial, to put off making concessions to society so that the average person can live a somewhat decent life.
Modern professional militaries don't need hundreds of thousands of troops, you don't need to mainline jingoism and nationalism straight into your fucking veins to defend your country from Russia, just make sure your military has the right capabilities to make a Russian land invasion as absolutely costly as possible.
What conservative warhawks will hear though is "tear our society apart and pre-emptively destroy everything we hold dear because of the threat of an enemy invader, and then in that militarism invite in corruption from Russian aligned assets anyways that exploit the opening created by the deafening roar of righteousness of the military industrial complex".
Resist them with everything you have.
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Russia has a larger army than any European country. Only Ukraine comes close, and they have veterancy only rivaled by the US and Ukraine.
(Ukraine probably wins on veterancy)
Sure, if Europe acts with Unity, they can roflstomp Russia, but Moscow would be looking for a moment of crisis to exploit.
NATO-Europe without the U.S. still outmatches Russia militarily and economically by a wide margin, but the real issue isn’t brute strength—it’s readiness and political will. Russia can't beat Ukraine, let alone all of NATO, but a surprise move in the Baltics or Suwałki Gap could be disastrous if Europe doesn't act fast. It’s not that Russia is strong—it’s that Europe can’t afford to be slow or divided.
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They absolutely can.
Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.
A few thousand soldiers that are very well equipped might lose to 10x as many badly equipped enemies.
I think they would lose, but they might not think so.
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Elsewhere on Lemmy today;
Germany warns Russia may be preparing attack on NATO
Both of these cannot be true.
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We're on the verge of total victory
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The enemy is prepared to launch its biggest attack yet
Is the same war time propaganda we've been served up for decades. Iraq/Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Kosovo, Vietnam, Korea...
The news coverage is totally divorced from what is happening on the ground. There's even a term for it.
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lets bankrupt them next. they obviously have too much power and dont know how to be responsible with it.
Trump is already hard at work on his magnum opus bankruptcy.
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They absolutely can.
Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.
A few thousand soldiers that are very well equipped might lose to 10x as many badly equipped enemies.
I think they would lose, but they might not think so.
Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.
They've got hundreds of thousands of conscripts who are largely dug in along an enormous front, along the four eastern most seized Oblasts in Ukraine.
Any attack they would make into a NATO state would be an artillery bombardment intended to deny Ukrainians resupply, not a ground invasion to secure territory. Particularly not when they have poor control over their own borders and a nasty instance of counter-insurgence popping up in and around their major cities.
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I was told that russia was bankrupt and the war would be over in 3 months. And then when that wagner guy revolted, it was the final nail in the coffin
Yet here we are and the war is still on.
when that wagner guy revolted, it was the final nail in the coffin
What was crazy during the Wagner Revolt was the intransigence of the Ukraine line.
You'd think that would be the moment for a full press by Ukraine troops over a lightly defended border. But no... they just stayed put and watched Prigovian flounder.
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Yeah dead soldiers inside of tank that got 1 shot by a micro drone with a grenade the moment they opened their hatch don't hold ground either.
Also, if you've seen them in Gaza they are next to useless in rubble that heavy with dudes popping out of tunnels that disable them without ever being seen.
It's guerilla. Not gorilla. Please spell correctly if you're trying to make a logical argument.
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Elsewhere on Lemmy today;
Germany warns Russia may be preparing attack on NATO
Both of these cannot be true.
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I'm just here hoping it's both. A guerilla fighting gorilla sounds awesome
leave animals out of this
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I still can’t believe how fucking shameless their regime is with those “prizes”. Like… holy fuck.
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Then move troops there. The European NATO members already outspend Russia in terms of military investments. Russia can't even take over Ukraine, a country that's not even in NATO and hasn't even had any modern military equipment for a very long time. Hell, they're getting hand me downs from countries like Germany, equipment that's decades old, isn't state of the art, and needs repairs, and they're still keeping Russia at bay. Now there's articles about Russia depleting its own tank stocks and shit, not being able to sustain even a war with Ukraine, and we're supposed to believe that Russia will somehow attack Germany or Poland (which is to be fair probably better armed than Germany).
So there's only two options here: either the western press is lying about Russia depleting its stocks and they're actually holding back instead of fully invading Ukraine (God knows why they fought in Ukraine for three years now then instead of just releasing their full "military might" from the get go). Or, the western press is fear mongering about Russia actually being able to invade NATO so the military industrial complex can make a quick buck off of our tax money.
My two cents: there's no chance in hell Russia can invade any NATO country, they can barely function in Ukraine lmao. Just send troops to the baltic and you're gonna be fine. No need for trillions of euros in new guns.
Then move troops there
We can't put all our troops in the Baltics, nevermind the fact that we don't have all that much troops and ammunition. Most of our money is spent on high tech weapons in limited numbers.
The European NATO members already outspend Russia in terms of military investments
Not really.
In terms of Euros spent, yes, we outspend them, but when adjusted for purchasing power we're scarily close to parity: 100 rubles in Russia buys you a lot more than 1 euro in Europe. And our militaries are hopelessly fragmented, and behind in the rearming race.
Anders Puck Nielsen has a very informative video on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxq-TvgNCBU
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Fascists are the ones that do or promote fascist things. Germany is not one of those countries.
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Elsewhere on Lemmy today;
Germany warns Russia may be preparing attack on NATO
Both of these cannot be true.
They can be true. They might be low on current stockpile, but what is building up is production capacity. Preparing to attack doesn't mean immediately attacking, what most have concern is that once Russia's war against Ukraine cools down, Russia will spend the next 4-10 years building up towards potentially attacking NATO nations.
Yes, years down the line doesn't sound as alarming to the layman, but it is critical for that eventuality to be recognized and prepared for, nations and industry move slowly, and they need to prepare to fight another long drawn out war.
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