Risk of large asteroid striking Earth falls to 1.5%
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Could it even completely obliterate the moon? Just not being tidally locked would be awful, but completely changing its trajectory/orbit and probably fuck up our atmosphere with debris seems more likely
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It's probably not big enough to shatter the moon, but enough to at least alter its orbit. I'm not enough of an astrophysicist to say how much. I haven't looked up the forces involved, so I can't even give a ballpark estimate.
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Boourns!
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As someone who's played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.
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Here's the upside: new species will evolve that can take better advantage of the new environment.
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I'm a Powerball man...
Those are great odds!
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Much much much much larger objects have hit the moon in the past
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Can we please not post daily updates? This is still 7 years away
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As someone who's played XCom, a 1.5% chance of a bad thing (questionable) means it's gonna critically hit
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It technically would alter the moons orbit, but not by a lot. This asteroid would impact with roughly the energy of a nuclear bomb, which sounds like a lot, but on the scale of our moon it's negligible.
A rough estimation given my limited understanding of physics is that to change the moon's orbit by 1 m/s, you would need to impart something like 10²² joules of energy into it. Wikipedia says that if this asteroid hits the moon, the impact energy will be around 10¹⁶ joules. I don't know how much you know about exponents, but 10¹⁶ is approximately 0% of the way to 10²², and that's just change of 1 m/s
Of course, someone who actually understands physics is free to correct me if I'm wrong
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Is this the new seven minutes to midnight? We're 1.5% to asteroid.
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As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.
Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh
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"Hey, little guy, is an asteroid gonna kill us all?"
Cluck cluck!
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Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?
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Don’t look up.
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Africa actually does seem to be the most likely impact if it were to hit. The predicted impact would be along the equator.
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I am down to have monthly updates for the next few years, weekly updates through 2031, and daily updates throughout 2032
I just feel like if we do daily updates for the next 7 years when it's in all likelihood going to miss us, we'll be too complacent when an asteroid does have an impact trajectory
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So you're telling me there's still a chance
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There is this fun toy see/calculate the potential effect of any asteroid collision: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/
If it hits any city, that is wiped out. If it hit anything else, chances are damages are moderate.
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Here you simulate some of the effects. Pretty fun to drop an asteroid on some asshat from my youth's house. Less fun when it wiped out my entire city and evaporated my parents. Welp.. can't have it all I guess.
https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/
